Omair Sharif Explains How Inflation Measures Really Work
Odd Lots
Bloomberg
4.5 • 2K Ratings
🗓️ 2 September 2021
⏱️ 61 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
When people think about what inflation is, they might first think about some broad index like the CPI. What does the the CPI really tell us? And how is it constructed? And how much does its rise and fall relate to the state of the macro-economy? On this episode, we speak with Omair Sharif, a longtime veteran of both the buy and sell-side, who is now the founder and president of Inflation Insights. Omair knows inflation index construction better than anyone, and he walks us through what's happening right now, and how he thinks about forecasting where inflation will go.
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| 0:43.0 | Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odlots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal. |
| 0:59.4 | And I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, do you remember, I think it was probably like last June or last July, |
| 1:07.1 | like over a year ago now, I think we were talking to Vitor Constancio. And I think you asked |
| 1:14.1 | like one of the most important questions like at the time and maybe still like that we've had |
| 1:19.3 | on this podcast. I struggled to remember things that happened a month ago, let alone 12 months ago. |
| 1:24.7 | Everything is sort of blurring into this one long stretch, but yeah, that's fair. What did I ask? |
| 1:32.9 | Well, you asked him whether economists or anyone these days had a cogent theory of inflation. |
| 1:40.7 | Oh, yes. |
| 1:41.4 | Do you remember that? And at the time, like, you know, there wasn't much inflation going on. |
| 1:45.1 | I think we were probably still in something resembling deflation or disinflation not long after |
| 1:49.4 | the initial shock. But now, you know, fast forward to August 2021. And official inflation measurements |
| 1:57.7 | are pretty elevated relative to recent history. And I think that question, and I think it's |
| 2:03.1 | based against was no, although I don't want to quote him on that. That question of like whether |
| 2:07.6 | economists understand inflation has probably never been is extremely top of mind these days. |
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