Hey, hey, where you been? But got talk is about to begin. Hey, hey, hey, come on in.

Oh, good back to heading the buck guys here on book. I talk that means it's me, Emily Maurice and my partner in crime Tyler shoe maker here to look at the Ohio State Buck guys and college football at large from a gambling perspective will get to our picks in the power five conferences in the second segment at the end we get in the weeds where T shoe it's really money making time. He did hit on his upset of the week a week ago. I think at least like about two to one on that. So we hope you guys were

in on that, but we start off as always with the gambling look at the Ohio State Buck guys and T shoe. I would like to go back a year briefly because this was, but this was, you know, before I really started looking at all the games right from a gambling perspective, because as we know, January 1st legalized sports betting in Ohio, but a year ago, I think I even wrote it. I think you can go find it on the internet's people if you guys want to put it in the Google machine. I called the Ohio State Rutgers betting line a year ago.

The worst betting line in the history of betting lines that were ever betted Ohio State in the first seven years playing Rutgers since since the Scarlet Knights joined the conference in 2014. This is how much Ohio State was favored by 20 and a half, 21 and a half, 39, 28, 35, 52 in 2019, 37 and a half.

This year, they're favored by 39 and a half. Last year, the line was 15 and as someone who is not good at this, Tyler, I'm clearly not good at this. I was so offended by that line and then Ohio State won 52 to 13. They won by 39. It was the easiest bet. One of those things.

There's no such thing as an easy bet. You say it bet every game the same. Don't say I'm going to put five bucks on this one. I'm going to put my mortgage on this other one, but that was a bet your mortgage kind of line a year ago, wasn't it? Do you remember hearing me say that or reading that or just now that I'm retelling it because it is my greatest triumph from a betting standpoint, only a 15 point line in the buck guys won by 39. What was up with that?

It's funny. I always think about that because we talked about it. I think I was on the pod that week when we did talk about it or around that week when we talked about it. At the time, we had to remember going back a year. At this time last year, Ohio State played Minnesota and played not very well, played Oregon and lost, played Tulsa and looked even worse than that and then played Akron.

When CJ didn't play and it was like, well, what's what's to deal with him is Kyle McCord getting to be the starter like Ohio State was kind of in disarray at this point last year. So at the time, I remember thinking like, man, but the line actually like it sounds crazy, but it actually from a power rating standpoint made sense, but then of course, you know, they go out and bludgeon Rutgers and it's like, well, of course they did.

Yeah, there's the power rating that there's like the talent rating standpoint and they still had 10 times as much talent as Rutgers. So, so I guess I get it Rutgers has like given Michigan a game and it's like, no, no, no, that's not what this is going to be. So the history of this tissue Ohio State is six and two against the spread against Rutgers in the eight games. And again, this line started at 41. It's down at 39 and a half at the latest that I looked at it.

It's it's I remember and I think it was in 2019 we might have been talking about will Ohio State score 100 on Rutgers. I think that might have been the theme that week. And then that was the game where it was like Rutgers hung around a little bit. There was kind of like a weird defensive play. I think. And so in that game, Ohio State's favored by 52 and the only one by 35.

There have been times when Ohio State like Rutgers has scored zero or three or seven and all those times Ohio State covers right when Ohio State gets in trouble. The two times they haven't covered they've given Rutgers that you went up in the 20s.

So then if you're like a 40 point favorite and you give up a score in the 20s now, so you've got to score 60 or 65 points in order to cover when you look at a history like that, right, because the players change. But the programs remain the same.

And the Greg Siano version of Rutgers, I think is different than the Kyle flood or Chris Ash version of Rutgers, right. But 62 against the spread. Would that tell you anything. I know you're a numbers power rating guy, but it would it would even be in the back of your head that.

That's a pretty good record. It's sometimes it's hard to make Ohio State a big enough favorite against a program like Rutgers. Yeah. And that's so I have two two thoughts on that one.

And this is a topic that that people have asked me about on Twitter over the last week or two with meds like, how do you adjust power ratings, particularly early in the season, like how quickly do you fade out the preseason projection and looking back at last year's games, kind of a perfect example of that, because if we were just going on the data from 2021, like that, like I said, that 15 point line kind of makes sense because Ohio State wasn't playing very well. But when you factor in the preseason projection and looking back.

You know, the last three or four years at the Ohio State program, that's what kind of gives them that baseline and in my numbers. So that's why I am generally a little slower to adapt to that sort of thing.

So I, yeah, I think it is something that that you have to consider. But ultimately, that's not going to put me on or off of a bet. It would just be something that I would take any consideration and conjunction with my number.

All right, so that makes sense to me, but I like you would not perhaps be swayed all that much by the history, because you have, you know, algorithms that you have poured your soul into and created new mathematical formulas sitting there on your computer screen.

I don't know, would it be okay? Couldn't know Ohio State fan who just wants to say, oh, man, they always cover against Rutgers. I want about 10 bucks on that. Like, would you just sway them from that?

Would you dissuade people from taking Ohio State minus 39 and a half, or if they're in the mood to do it, is there some sense to it?

Sure. I mean, when you look at at this year's team, you know, on both sides that on the Ohio State side and on the Rutgers side, like, if that's your tiebreaker, like, well, you know, 39 doesn't, doesn't sound like that big a number. And historically, they've pounded them into the ground.

Then, then yeah, absolutely, like, let that be your, your tipping point. Now, obviously, again, you wouldn't, if Ohio State was, if this was 2011 Ohio State or something, you wouldn't be like, well, historically, they've destroyed them because then, obviously, it's not the same thing. So, right, if that's kind of your, if you're kind of on the fence, and then you look back and look at the historics and, and that pushes you over the edge, then absolutely go for it.

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