Welcome to the Eurointelligence podcast. I'm Wolfgang Munchau and with me are Zasana Monsenk and Jack Smith.

This morning we had in our news briefing an analysis on the various scenarios in which the war in Ukraine could end.

And we have been perhaps controversially, we concluded that the sanctions that we are

devising right now need to be tailored not only to have a maximum effect on the outcome

now and on Putin's ability to finance future wars, but then must be tailored towards facilitating

a potential peace treaty or a peace agreement that might be negotiated over the next few months

at some point.

Our argument is that we have in the West taken. I remember the scene in the House of Commons

last week when a very clever president Zelensky was able to trigger the British at the

way they could be triggered with references to Winston Churchill and the House of Commons

erupted in applause and satisfaction.

You know, we should be careful about being the bystanders, the cheerleaders of a war,

because we are not the ones that are, especially the British with their extremely restrictive immigration policies,

are not going to be affected

by any worst case outcomes in Ukraine. And it's ultimately for the Ukrainians and the Russians to

decide when they're ready for diplomatic negotiations. And it is for us to to keep the pressure on

Russia through the sanctions to induce Russia

to come to the negotiating table, which at the moment is not the case.

The negotiations with Lavrov this morning didn't succeed predictably.

It's a start of a long process.

We don't think that Russia would have an incentive to offer a good deal unless there was pressure

on them.

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