Of Mega Trends and VC Men | Okay, Computer.

RiskReversal Pod

RiskReversal Media

News, Business, Investing, Business News

4.6 • 757 Ratings

🗓️ 20 December 2023

⏱️ 52 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On this episode of Okay, Computer. Dan Nathan is joined by Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital and Rick Heitzmann of FirstMark Capital for a conversation about investing in private tech, the macro environment and geopolitical hotspots. Key Insights from the Pod: Intro (Listen to the last time Josh & Rick were on the pod) (0:00) The interest rate environment (2:15) Mentoring (6:00) Creative destruction and reformation (9:50) The IPO market (Read: IPO Class of 2024 Is Dominated by Older Startups (16:25) Sectors that could see a wave of money (19:15) The AI bubble (21:05) Massive bubble in Mag 7 stocks? (26:00) GLP-1s & Ozempic (29:50) The next Ozempic-like moment (31:20) Ro Body (32:20) Sentiment going into 2024 (34:00) Economic headwinds/Possible labor recession (37:30) Why Josh thinks UPS could go bankrupt & his case for Amazon (40:15) Josh’s geopolitical outlook for 2024 (Read: Josh Wolfe’s War) (41:40) China/Taiwan (44:15) Disarray in US politics (48:00) -- View our show notes here Learn more about Current: current.com Learn more about Ro Body: ro.co/okay Email us at [email protected] with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OkayComputerPod. We’re on social: Follow @dee_bosa on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to OK Computer. I am joined by Rick Heidzman. He's the founder and managing partner at First Mark Capital and Josh Wolf back to the pod, founder and managing director at Lux Capital. Josh, welcome back.
0:13.9	Back in the pod. Good to see you. This was one of the first interviews I think that we did. This was in July of 2022.
0:20.0	Josh was on our hit list of somebody we had to get on.
0:22.7	I think the unique nature of your focus as it relates to investing in the private markets,
0:27.2	but also your worldview. And then also a lot of what you guys grew up together actually helped
0:32.0	build the VC community here in New York. So we spent a lot of time on that. I'd love to revisit
0:36.3	some of the themes that we talked about. It's been 18 months, which is crazy. And it's a really different world since then.
0:41.9	It's been a roller coaster. It really has. And I think some of the things that you guys both said about
0:45.5	the private markets and what was going to happen in this new rate paradigm that we were in.
0:50.1	And now on the flip side of that, we're seeing that kind of unwound a little bit. And I'd love to hear a little bit about thoughts on venture and some of the things that you're talking to about the companies in your portfolios and that you're advising and the like and what you think for 2024.
1:02.0	But I kind of want to start with the macro and geopolitical because I think of these things through the lens of the public markets quite frequently.
1:09.0	I think you guys have a really interesting take because the cost of capital is important in both of these markets. Sometimes
1:15.6	they can be totally disregarded in the public markets. And I think that's what's going on right now.
1:20.4	But I'd love to maybe take it back a little bit at the time in July of 2022, guys. And the markets were in the
1:26.4	throes of a bare market.
1:28.2	I think the sentiment in the private markets also felt pretty bearish in a way.
1:32.4	We had a 10-year yield was at 3%.
1:34.6	Okay?
1:35.1	Right now it's at 4%-ish, okay?
1:37.1	We had a Fed funds rate at 2.5% on its way to the upper bound right now at 5.5%.
1:43.2	Now, the spark in equities that we've seen over
1:45.8	the last few weeks or so in the public markets has to do with the fact that the Fed is going to be
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