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The Simple Handicap: Daily NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

October 26th - NFL Odds, Picks and Market Discussion

The Simple Handicap: Daily NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

Adam Chernoff

Football, Sports

4.81.3K Ratings

🗓️ 26 October 2021

⏱️ 16 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

NFL Odds, Picks and Market Discussion for October 26th, 2021

 

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Good morning, everyone, the simple handicap for Tuesday, October 26th.

0:07.0

Thank you for making me a part of your morning.

0:09.7

And NFL week number seven is officially in the review mirror.

0:13.1

We are on to NFL week eight kicking off on Thursday.

0:17.4

Another successful week in the books for listeners of the podcast and those that follow the Twitter account,

0:22.8

eight and three for week seven, 55 and 17, 76 percent through the first seven weeks of football,

0:32.9

and the sites are sent on week eight with a bet already in the bet thread, which you can find following on

0:37.8

Twitter. We'll touch on that in just a second, but we kick things off for week eight with the

0:43.5

Green Bay Packers on the road at the Arizona Cardinals. And like a handful of games yesterday,

0:49.1

we saw this number moving in a hurry. This was Cardinals minus three. Basically, everywhere you look across the board,

0:58.1

it got bed up immediately to three and a half. And it was sitting there. And we saw money start to

1:03.0

trickle in mid-afternoon yesterday. And then once the Devante Adams news with him testing

1:08.5

positive for COVID broke, this number was off to the races.

1:12.2

The stopping point was Arizona minus six.

1:17.7

Now, there's going to be a lot of folks who look at this and are sort of old school and how

1:24.1

they think about betting, and they're going to say no skill position player is worth more than two points.

1:32.2

And Devante Adams, with how this number moved, is sort of the markets equating him to being worth nearly a field goal.

1:38.6

And people are going to look at that and say that's too much.

1:40.9

And it's not inconsistent from past games where he has missed in which the Green

1:46.3

May Packers have covered every single time. And so there's sort of two ways that you can look at this.

1:51.9

You can say, yes, it's inflated and go the other way. And really you're betting into something

1:57.0

that the market might have identified in the past, or you're taking sort of a more

...

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