Good morning, everyone, the simple handigap for Thursday, October 14th. Thank you for making me a part of your morning.

Before we get into the market rundown, two quick things about tweets sent out yesterday.

First of them, general rules of thumb to consider when price shopping if you have multiple sports books and prices.

Hopefully, if you are listening to this podcast every morning and you're one of the now 5,000

people, this thing per morning, you have more than one sports book. Remember, accounts are free

to open and all of them because risk is managed differently at each

sports book, will have different prices. The tweet I sent out yesterday was not a tweet advocating

for buying points. In fact, it was really the opposite. It was showing that while sportsbooks move,

it is important in the NFL, this is with every sport, but this is an NFL podcast, to look beyond just the point spread because the

VIG associated with the point spread is incredibly important.

And the push probability of each flat number tends to be over,

undervalued at times based on risk and how prices are moving from Sportsbook to Sportsbook.

And so the tweet that I sent out was a rule of thumb when you're looking to play around key numbers. And this week is a

perfect example with many games priced around three, four, six, seven, and ten. The most common

result in the NFL is a team winning by three. The second is a team winning by seven.

The third is a team winning by 10.

And then you have six and then you have four.

Those numbers in the NFL from a point spread and push probability perspective are the

highest rated.

And that's why you see sort of a bottleneck with prices throughout the week.

And so what I said was, we're seeing so many different examples of a lot of books at seven.

Then you see one at six and a half or a lot of books at three.

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