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Hey, good morning, Playbookers.

I'm Raguam Winnivalin.

It's Tuesday.

We're just five weeks away from Election Day, and we've got an update in our election forecast.

It's your Politico Playbook Daily Briefing.

Politico's campaign guru Steve Shepard shifted election forecast ratings for 23 House and Governor races.

You can catch the full report in today's playbook, but that so many races are in flux isn't necessarily surprising with Election Day just five weeks away.

What is surprising is how those 23 races are shifting. Twelve went toward Republican

candidates, while 11 went toward Democrats. Typically, by this time in the election cycle,

the national environment begins to crystallize and contests begin to move in tandem toward

one party. Not quite so this time. For instance, Steve is moving a toss-up race toward

GOP candidate Jen Kiggins

in Virginia's second congressional district based on a strong campaign against Democratic

Representative Elaine Luria. But he's moving the reelection bid of Representative Sherees-David's

third district to lean Democratic, based on the potency of the abortion issue in the Kansas

city suburbs. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's reelection campaign moves from toss-up to lean

Republican. Two Oregon House races move from likely Democratic to lean Democratic. Representatives

Henry Quayar and Annie Custer gained security moving from toss-up to Lean Democratic, while Representative Don Bacon

in Nebraska shifts from Lean Republican to toss-up.

Steve told Playbook, it's undoubtedly unusual to have nearly equal numbers of races moving in each

direction, but it underscores some of the big themes of this unique midterm.

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