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Animal Spirits Podcast

Obvious Signs of the Top (EP.257)

Animal Spirits Podcast

The Compound

News, Business News, Investing, Business

4.72.1K Ratings

🗓️ 18 May 2022

⏱️ 51 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On today's show we discuss why markets are so confusing right now, the different kinds of recessions, inflation expectations, how to survive a bear market, the best movie sequels ever and much more. Find complete shownotes on our blogs...‍ Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense‍ Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor‍ Like us on Facebook‍ And feel free to shoot us an email at animalspiritspod@gmail.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.‍ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

Today's animal spirits is brought to you by NASDAQ. NASDAQ sent us this new survey of wealth

0:06.3

managers, R.I.A.'s, brokerage houses, those kind of places, wire houses, asking us, yeah, these

0:13.4

kind of places. A couple of questions I thought were interesting based on where we are in the market.

0:17.0

If you believed the stock market was headed for a prolonged bear market, what would your most

0:21.0

likely advise clients to do? This was basically 50-50. That's me. One group said trade defensively

0:27.2

to avoid a downturn. The other one said, hold firm and ride the bear market. I was surprised it

0:32.7

was that close. Here's another one. What's 50-50 basically? It's probably 51-49, hold firm to trade

0:44.1

defensively. I just got to ask you this. Neither of these are easy, right? It's not easy to hold on

0:49.8

in a bear market, but what's more doable, holding on for dear life or trading your way through it?

0:57.1

What do you think is more realistic? Well, which one has more career risk, I guess, is what you're

1:00.5

asking? No, I'm not even talking about the devices perspective. I'm just saying in just real talk.

1:05.3

Well, my answer is always that buying hold is simpler. That might not mean it's easier.

1:14.3

It's for most people trading defensively, probably makes them feel better.

1:18.4

What did they trade offensively? I don't know. Here's another one. When you want to trade defensively,

1:22.5

which investment categories do you go with? The highest one here? Fixed rate bonds is the lowest

1:28.3

answer. Variable rate bonds is on their hedged equity. I'm guessing that's some sort of bear market

1:34.5

fund or hedge funds. Yeah, market neutral kind of thing. That surprises me. This has to be a great

1:40.0

year for market neutral. The last 12 months, last 12 to 24 months. Yeah, it is. Last one. Which would

1:45.9

you consider to be a bigger risk here, business as an advisor, not meeting the benchmark for which I

1:51.0

set expectations, not protecting my clients from major and prolonged market downturns. Which one

1:57.6

do you think one without looking at it here? Okay, this is tricky question. How would I answer?

2:01.7

How do I think advises would answer? This is like the Cain's beauty contest. All right, ask what's

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