Hey, good morning, Playbookers. I'm Rogumon-Avalin. It's Wednesday.

We head to Georgia for the last Senate race of the cycle. It's your Politico Playbook Daily briefing.

On Tuesday, a new poll by the AARP, the first major public survey since the November general election,

showed the race remains inside

the margin of error, with incumbent Democratic Senator Rafael Warnock pulling in 51% to Republican

Herschel Walker's 47. One key data point from the survey, Warnock has a commanding lead of 54 to 39%

over Walker among independent voters. That's an important block that once reliably voted for Republicans in Georgia.

Runoffs are always the junkiest of junk food for political obsessives because they're the only

race going on.

And in this one, that dynamic has shifted into overdrive.

For one, there's big money.

According to Add Impact, a firm that tracks media spending, Democrats have spent

more than $20 million in radio and TV ads just on the runoff, while Republicans have

spent around $14 million.

There's also big surrogates.

Former President Barack Obama is stumping for Warnock on December 1st.

While there's no word on whether President Joe Biden will be headed there, Biden aides

tell us the White House let the campaign know they're willing to do whatever it takes

to keep the seat blue, including stay out of it, if need be.

And then there's a big question hanging over the race.

Is the cake already baked in Georgia?

There are a couple of reasons it already feels like a done deal.

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