Nothing New Under the Sun
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 30 April 2021
⏱️ 21 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Tell me what you think about these two statements:
(1) Markets are dynamic, ever-changing forces. They are never predictable, their outcomes are never assured, the inputs are constantly adjusting with the ebbs and flows of different circumstances and facts that have to be monitored, studied, and adjusted as needed.
(2) There is nothing new under the sun.
I believe these two statements are both true, and I believe that the apparent contradiction between the two actually represents one of the great challenges and obligations for professional investment managers. And that is the subject of today’s Dividend Cafe.
We live in interesting times. We live in unpredictable times. And we live in times that offer a milieu of circumstances which combine the novel with the redundant. And for all of the uncertainty about the future and the debate in the present, there does exist a past that can, at a bare minimum, help inform us in the present and in our preparations for the future.
The “new” must be informed by the “old.” And that is what we are going to discuss in the Dividend Cafe today.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.6 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.8 | Well, hello and welcome to this week's Dividend Cafe, podcast and video. |
| 0:18.0 | Those of you watching on the video, I actually have not gotten out of my seat yet |
| 0:22.6 | from about 30 seconds ago finishing up a appearance on the Varney show on Fox Business. And rather |
| 0:30.4 | than reconfigure and move and adjust, I'm just going to sit right here and start recording |
| 0:36.7 | for you all. The subject to this |
| 0:40.7 | week's Dividend Cafe is I hope it's understandable. I hope I communicated all clearly, both at |
| 0:49.6 | divinacethafe.com and for you guys listening, the basic message isn't really all that profound, |
| 0:55.7 | but the way in which I apply it, I'm hoping, will really be useful to you. |
| 1:00.4 | But I think that there are two facts that I'm going to state here, to beliefs, to tenants, |
| 1:07.0 | to principles, if you will, that are both equally true, that are both profoundly true, |
| 1:13.7 | that are both significant, and that seem to be at odds with one another, |
| 1:20.1 | at least creating some internal tension between the two. |
| 1:24.7 | The first is the basic idea that markets are highly dynamic forces, that they |
| 1:29.8 | are constantly changing, that they are ever unpredictable, that there are circumstances, |
| 1:37.0 | conditions, and various things that impact the terrain of the economy, and then the way that markets respond |
| 1:46.8 | to that terrain, and that creates chain reactions, that all of these processes are highly |
| 1:54.3 | complex and highly unpredictable. |
| 1:57.2 | And there's some that have studied this at great length. |
| 2:01.2 | There's a book by Nassim Talib called Fooled by Randomness |
| 2:04.8 | that I'm completely and totally informed and in a lot of ways altered |
... |
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