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What Next | Daily News and Analysis

Not All of the Polls Were Wrong

What Next | Daily News and Analysis

Slate Podcasts

News, News Commentary, Daily News

4.32.4K Ratings

🗓️ 12 November 2020

⏱️ 29 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In the lead-up to the 2020 election, Iowa polls had Biden and Trump running neck and neck to win the state’s 6 electoral votes. However, one poll in late October showed that Trump had taken a seven-point lead over Biden. Many political observers and Democrats dismissed it as an outlier, insisting that Iowa was up for grabs. On election night? Trump won Iowa by just over eight points. How did Ann Selzer see this coming? And what does the “Outlier Queen” have to say about the state of her industry? Guest: Ann Selzer, public opinion pollster and President of Selzer and Company. Slate Plus members get bonus segments and ad-free podcast feeds. Sign up now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

In Iowa, Ann Celser is known for her political polls.

0:09.0

Polls that surprise people.

0:11.0

I've heard all of these nicknames for you.

0:14.0

Like, my favorite is the Cassandra of Des Moines.

0:17.0

But do you have a favorite?

0:19.0

Well, I recently sort of resurrected the title of Outlier Queen.

0:25.0

That is, I've had any number of polls that looked like an outlier

0:29.0

and then turned out to be pretty, pretty close.

0:34.0

So Queen, I have a little Tierra collection.

0:37.0

So, you know, that fits me just fine.

0:39.0

Do you literally have a Tierra collection?

0:41.0

I literally have a Tierra collection.

0:44.0

Ann's polls don't just catch people by surprise.

0:47.0

They're also surprisingly accurate.

0:50.0

She started getting attention back in 2008.

0:53.0

That's when she was one of the only people to predict Barack Obama

0:56.0

would dominate the Iowa caucuses.

0:59.0

Since election results began coming in last week,

1:02.0

there's bitmiss debate about the polls.

1:05.0

How good they are, whether we should pay attention to them anymore.

1:09.0

So many of them simply got this election wrong.

1:13.0

Predicted Joe Biden would run up big margins

...

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