This is the Cato Daily Podcast for Friday, October 8, 2010. I'm Caleb Brown.

The son of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il has stepped onto the main stage, but we still

know precious little about him.

What does the rise of this dictator to be mean for nuclear security, and perhaps most immediately,

South Korea?

Ted Galen Carpenter, Vice President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, comments.

Other than being the son of Kim Jong-il, the current leader of North Korea, we don't know a lot about this person. He's apparently 28 years old, the third

son of Kim Jong-il. Obviously he has not suffered from the famine in North Korea.

He's held no meaningful position in either the ruling party or in any other institution in North Korea.

All right, so he may ascend to his father's totalitarian role in North Korea.

Is there a, do we have any idea about a timetable or what that sort of thing tends to look like?

Well, Kim Jong-il of course hopes that his son will ascend to the real power in North Korea.

He was just made a four-star general, obviously in recognition of his

tremendous military accomplishments. But the reality is, if Kim Jong-il does not stay in power, in other words stay alive for at least six to eight years,

Kim Jong-un's chances of being anything more than a figurehead are minimal and he might not even be a figurehead.

Accidents certainly do happen in North Korea and if Kim Jong-il died within the next few years, I think the chances of this 28-year-old

actually holding Supreme Power in North Korea would not be favorable at all. In fact, I wouldn't want to be the company

issuing the life insurance policy on him.

This is coming at a time when some reports indicate that North Korea's nuclear capability is more alarming than previously thought?

Well, the South Koreans are certainly worried about it.

I think that's much more a status symbol than it is a usable weapon. I don't see the

North Koreans under any regime launching a nuclear war, but it is scary that such an opaque system would have that kind of capability.

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