Predictions feel comforting—but they’re usually nonsense. In this episode, Don and Tom dismantle the illusion of foresight by revisiting last year’s loudest economic forecasts around tariffs, inflation, jobs, recessions, and markets. Drawing from a Wall Street Journal retrospective, they show how both political promises and expert predictions missed the mark, with reality landing squarely in the messy middle. The takeaway is classic Talking Real Money: nobody—not economists, not presidents, not pundits, and especially not you—has actionable insight into the future. That’s why successful investing isn’t about forecasts or hot takes, but about building a diversified portfolio, rebalancing when needed, and tuning out the noise. The episode wraps with listener questions on teen investing accounts and Roth conversion rules, plus a reminder that humility beats hubris every time markets get unpredictable. 0:04 The future is unpredictable—even when we pretend it isn’t 0:26 Why we crave predictions and mistake luck for skill 0:53 Being “right” once doesn’t mean anything 1:58 Tariffs, Trump, and the great forecasting divide 2:27 Inflation predictions that never showed up 3:53 Jobs, unemployment, and why both sides were wrong 5:49 Who actually paid for tariffs (hint: not who you think) 7:08 Recession fears vs. reality—and the AI wildcard 8:55 Why short-term predictions fail and macro trends survive 10:41 The truth usually lives between the extremes 11:31 Lao Tzu, Yogi Berra, and why nobody knows the future 13:20 The most dangerous “expert” investors trust: themselves 14:43 Listener question: investing for a 16-year-old 17:29 Roth IRA vs. UTMA/UGMA and simple fund choices 18:06 Listener question: Roth conversions and the five-year rule 20:54 Humor, offense, and why everyone needs to lighten up 21:14 RetireMeet 2026 details and special guest preview 23:14 Apella Wealth philosophy and free help reminder 24:39 The number one word of the year (still shocking) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices