Putin will have been paying very close attention I guarantee you to anything that Biden says about possible Russian nuclear use and what he's going to have heard is a president saying

However far up the Russians go the escalation ladder. I'll have to go too and if the Russians get to the point

where they're launching a full intercontinental strike on me I'm going to have to

launch a full intercontinental strike on them. In other words the United States is actually going to engage in executing its requirements

in the deterrence escalation ladder that has been underpinning deterrence theory for six decades and that Biden is committed to that

course of action. With increasing talks about nuclear threats, I have three questions.

What do we know from Putin's past behavior that could inform how high up the ladder of

escalation he's prepared to go? What are the next rungs up the ladder of escalation before

the nuclear threat is real? And as Putin moves up this escalatory ladder, what are

the calculations of Zelensky, of Europe's leaders, and of President Biden?

To help us think through all of this, military analyst and Russia historian Fred Kagan returns

to the podcast. Fred is the director of the American

critical threats project at the American Enterprise Institute and a former

professor of military history at West Point where he taught for 10 years.

Today, Fred regularly advises senior U.S. military commanders.

Fred earned his PhD in Russian and Soviet military history

at Yale University.

I was especially interested in checking in with Fred because he is a contrarian take

on possible off-ramps for Putin.

spoiler alert, he doesn't think there are any.

And Fred also has a contrarian take on President Biden's recent comments about a, quote,

nuclear Armageddon.

...