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Wall Street Breakfast

Nike plunges, options hint rebound

Wall Street Breakfast

Seeking Alpha

Business News, News, Business, Investing

4.11K Ratings

🗓️ 1 April 2026

⏱️ 5 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Nike shares fall on weak outlook, options, analysts see rebound. (0:15) Dave & Buster’s up on turnaround hopes. (1:56) February retail sales beat estimates as core spending shows resilience. (2:07)    

Show Notes
Artemis II moon mission    

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Lunch, our afternoon update on today's market action, news, and analysis.

0:09.9

Good afternoon. Today is Wednesday, April 1st, and I'm your host, Kim Khan. Our top story so far,

0:15.8

a disappointing guidance update has Nike shares tumbling, but the options market suggests some traders

0:20.5

see the sell-off

0:21.2

is overdone. The company guided for a Q4 revenue decline of 2 to 4%, sharply below the 1.9%

0:27.7

growth consensus estimate. A 20% drop in Greater China revenue added to an already challenging

0:33.0

outlook. Still, activity in the April 10th Options Exhibition chain points to a more constructive direction.

0:39.3

The $60 call is a single most active strike, more than 25% above the current share price,

0:44.4

implying conviction around a potential rebound over the next nine days.

0:48.3

Heavy volume from the $55 and $58 calls also suggests positioning for a move back into the 55 to 60 range.

0:55.0

RBC capital markets says it remains constructive on Nike's midterm recovery potential,

1:00.0

though it now expects the turnaround to take longer than initially anticipated,

1:03.0

citing weakness in Greater China, converse, and sportswear.

1:07.0

On the positive side, RBC noted management appears willing to make difficult decisions to address operational shortcomings.

1:13.6

Analyst broadly say Nike's read-through could ripple across the sector.

1:17.6

Under Armour, Decker's, Skechers, and Lily Lemon all have China exposure.

1:21.6

In Europe, Adidas, Puma, anti-sports, and on-holding will also be in focus.

1:26.6

Among other active stocks, shares of RH are plunging after the company's Q4 results

1:31.5

and forward guidance disappointed investors, even as management said it is navigating what

1:36.1

it called a dire housing market.

1:38.1

For Q1, revenue is projected to decline 2 to 4%, or roughly $781 to $798 million, well below the $876.7 million consensus estimate.

1:48.9

Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected in the 5.5 to 6.5% range down sharply from 13.1% a year

...

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