Niall Ferguson: What Happens Next in Iran Will Change the Middle East Forever

Conversations With Coleman

The Free Press

Philosophy, Society & Culture

4.8 • 2K Ratings

🗓️ 15 January 2026

⏱️ 64 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

This week I’m joined by historian Niall Ferguson to help me make sense of Iran’s unprecedented wave of protests. We talk about why this moment feels different to previous uprisings, the regime’s growing crisis of legitimacy, the limits of sanctions, and how the long shadow of 1953 still shapes everything in Iran. We also look at what Trump’s “maximum pressure” could mean, and the risks posed by any form of U.S. intervention. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:15.0	Welcome to another episode of Conversations with Coleman.
0:18.0	My guest today is Sir Neil Ferguson. Neil is a historian known for
0:23.3	writing about empire, war, finance, and global power. He's also the Milbank family senior
0:29.4	fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution. In this episode, Neil and I discuss the anti-regime protests
0:35.8	in Iran, as well as the brutal government crackdown
0:38.7	that has left thousands of protesters dead. We talk about why the protests began. We talk about what
0:45.3	the protesters are demanding. We talk about how this protest differs from the protests over the
0:50.6	death of Masa Amini three years ago. We talk about the likelihood of the regime
0:55.6	actually falling. We talk about whether the sanctions on Iran have worked. We talk about the
1:01.5	1953 coup that brought the Shah to power, as well as the ways in which that history gets
1:06.9	twisted by the left and the right. We talk about whether U.S. intervention would risk
1:12.4	delegitimating the protesters or not. We talk about how the downfall of the Islamic regime
1:18.3	would change geopolitics in the region, and much more. So without further ado, Sir Neil Ferguson.
1:34.8	Thank you. the adieu, Sir Neil Ferguson. Okay, Neil Ferguson. Thanks so much for coming back on my show.
1:38.1	It's a pleasure to be with you, Colman, always is.
1:41.3	So you've been on my show many times before. I think very highly of you. I'm excited to
1:47.4	talk to you right now. Today we're going to talk about what's going on in Iran. And I want to talk
1:53.4	about it in this order. I want to first start by catching anyone up on the basics of what has
1:59.3	happened in Iran, not just over the past two weeks,
	...

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