NHS waiting lists, Voter ID and measuring divorce

More or Less: Behind the Stats

BBC

Business, Mathematics, Science, News Commentary, News

4.6 • 3.5K Ratings

🗓️ 24 May 2023

⏱️ 29 minutes

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Summary

The government has trumpeted a big fall in those waiting over 18 months for hospital treatment in England. But total numbers on waiting lists have hit a new high. Also we look at how much impact the introduction of Voter ID had on turnout in May's English local elections. We ask whether Portugal really has a divorce rate of 94%. And we remember mathematician Dr Vicky Neale of Oxford University, who has died at the age of 39. The government has trumpeted a big fall in those waiting over 18 months for hospital treatment in England. But total numbers on waiting lists have hit a new high. Also we look at how much impact the introduction of Voter ID had on turnout in May's English local elections. We ask whether Portugal really has a divorce rate of 94%. And we remember mathematician Dr Vicky Neale of Oxford University, who has died at the age of 39. Presenter: Tim Harford Series Producer: Jon Bithrey Reporters: Josephine Casserly, Octavia Woodward, Ellie House Sound Engineer: James Beard Production Co-ordinator: Brenda Brown

Transcript

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0:00.0	BBC Sounds Music Radio Podcasts
0:04.7	Hello and welcome to a brand new series of more or less with me Tim Harford. We are
0:10.8	weekly guide to the numbers in the news and in life.
0:14.5	On this week's programme, for the first time voters at England's recent local elections
0:19.3	were required to prove their identity. What can we say about whether that discouraged
0:24.0	people from voting? And a viral tweet says that the divorce rate in Portugal is 94%
0:32.3	can that be true? But first, a couple of weeks ago the House of Commons heard these words
0:38.4	from Steve Barclay, who is sorry, I'm loose track, let me check. Oh yes, he's the current
0:46.2	Secretary of State for Health. And now 80 month waits have decreased by over 90% since
0:52.7	their peak in September 2021. NHS England waiting lists and particularly those waiting
0:59.2	very long times increased dramatically during the pandemic and cutting waiting lists is one
1:04.7	of the government's big five targets. Fourth, NHS waiting lists will fall and people will
1:12.4	get the care they need more quickly. So reducing the number of people waiting
1:17.8	over 18 months sounds like some good news. Although we couldn't help but notice that the
1:22.5	government's own target wasn't to reduce people waiting for hospital treatment by 90%,
1:28.0	it was to stop anyone waiting for hospital treatment more than 18 months by April 2023.
1:33.4	In other words, reduce it by 100%. Still, a 90% reduction does sound good. For every 10 people
1:40.7	who would have been waiting more than 18 months, now only one person will be waiting that long.
1:46.1	But that all assumes that the statistic gives us a full picture of the situation. So does
1:52.6	it? Reporter Josephine Cassley has been looking into this. Hello. Hello. So first things
1:57.7	first, Joe, what exactly are people waiting for? Well, when people talk about the NHS waiting
2:03.7	list, they're talking about people waiting for planned treatment led by an NHS consultant,
	...

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