Hello fellow rebel capitalists hope you're well. Jeff Gunlock in the news making some very, very intense

predictions about the coming recession and it's one thing to hear it from a

you tuber like me or someone like you know maybe that Peter shift guy he's

crazy the tinfoil hatter but it's another thing to come to hear it from someone that's very kind of mainstream if you will and Jeff Gunlock definitely in that category and he is sounding the alarm bells as we speak.

Let's go right over to see and be see and check this out.

This a clip that literally just came out like 20 minutes ago.

And that would be it.

You got your 25. you think that's it. I think the chances are better than 50-50 that we're done with the rate hikes. We're going to have to watch that, how the short on the Treasury curve is moving because it's been so

schizophrenic in response to all of these strains in the banking system and the

deposit runs. So basically the two-year Treasury has averaged about 4.4 for the past month.

And so it's sort of in the context of where the Fed is now, but to suggest to me that the

base cases, the Fed's not going to be raising again and I think

this credit contraction of concern is going to be at the core of them pausing because obviously

we've seen financial institutions

lending institutions tightening credit conditions for a year now and obviously

over the past few weeks the signs are they've tightened further and may tighten even from here. I mean the thing

of the Dominic 2 was talking about at the end of the last show is pretty real. I think that a lot of people

fell asleep on their checking

account balances, not really realizing that they were getting such low

interest rates while the six-month T bill was giving you 5% and still...

You know, Josh, at someone has been talking about that recently.

Who is that talking about the delta between what people get in their deposit accounts and the interest rate they could get on a T-bill

...