Hello, fellow rebel capitalists, hope you're well.

So most of you know I am in the D-dis-inflation camp,

but I found some data today that I think represents a very good argument for why inflation will go back up.

Most of you have been watching my videos so you know that month over month inflation the

C. P. I number pretty much collapsed in July of 2022 and it's remained very, very

low. So if the next six months of

CPI numbers are similar to the last six months,

the headline CPI number will go from 6.5,

probably down under 3%, believe it or not and I think that's probably my base case but again I saw this

chart now is actually in the gym and it kind of just dawned on me I'm like wait a minute

here wait a minute because I remember that M2 money supply has been going down. I thought to myself, well, wait a minute, if M2 money supply has gone down and nominal GDP is still going up, that must mean that velocity is increasing at a very significant pace, which as you guys know would be very, very rare because velocity has been going down pretty much in a straight line for quite literally decades.

So let's go over to this chart or actually a few charts here and then we'll go over the top three reasons why I think you could see another spike in inflation.

It's understanding again that that isn't necessarily my base case, but obviously it is a possibility.

So this is the personal savings rate. This is what how I was trying to kind of reconcile in my head how we have had

this increase in, we'll just focus on M1 or M2 and then this decline in velocity.

I said, well, that's true then the savings rate would have to go up.

And this chart is a little misleading. then the savings rate would have to go up.

And this chart is a little misleading

because you've got this massive spike,

so the chart goes all the way up to 35%,

almost 35%.

So we do see, so this increase in the savings rate doesn't look like much on the chart, but it's actually significant because prior to the GFC we're about 3% and just prior to the

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