Hello fellow rebel capitalists.

Hope you are well.

So the secret has finally been revealed.

The Federal Reserve's secret has finally been revealed. The Federal Reserve's secret has finally been revealed. Let's go over to an article from the Fed that I found doing research for my latest whiteboard video from 2019.

This is from the Chicago Fed and by the way this blog post or article whatever you want to call it PDF is absolutely incredible.

And if you haven't watched last night's whiteboard video, I'd strongly suggest doing so. It's I think from a standpoint of just pure

information and data, especially step number two, is one of the best I've done in

quite some time, but this is kind of a summary of that part of the whiteboard video.

So in this article from the Fed, actually let me go to the top here.

So which leading indicators have done better

at signaling past recessions?

That's the question they're trying to answer.

The first chart that we get to is really eye opening.

And one of the things that was super cool about this,

a lot of these indexes and indicators I've never even heard of. As an example, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the United States, the BBK or Brave Butters Kelly leading index.

Treasury Curve, we've all heard of that, the Trent and the Treasury Curve that we are

most familiar with is what they refer to as the long-term

spread and I won't show you within the article but if you read the whole

report that's basically the three month minus the 10 year and then they have non-financial conditions index I mean they list these seven and then over here they list another I don't know 10 15 maybe even more but they didn't

really include these in their first chart because these didn't really have a

strong predictive ability.

So the conclusion of their blog post

...