Hello, fellow Rebel capitalists, hope you're well.

So we talk about the inversion of the yield curve

all the time on this channel,

but I didn't realize that we are currently

at unprecedented levels. We have never seen this in the entire history of the United States,

where we are right now as we speak. Let's get right over to Bloomberg and I'll show you exactly what I am referring to.

Title, the bond market has never sounded recession alarms for this long.

So as we've discussed on this channel many many times, usually you

get about 14 months of a lag, maybe 18 months depending on how far you go back,

between the initial

inversion of the curve, we'll use the three month in the 10 year as an

example and when you actually get that recession. So we're not there yet. In

fact, I did the math this morning for a whiteboard video.

Fourteen months would take us to December of 2023, because the curve first inverted in October of 2022. But that's how long it takes to get a recession once the curve inverts.

I'd never looked really at how long the curve had stayed inverted. And this is really mind-blowing here for 212 trading days, they say, the curve has

been inverted between the three months and the 10-year and they kind of, the next key talking point here,

which I completely agree with is a quote,

ignore the signal at your own risk.

Well said, the U.S. bond market has flashed recession warning so consistently

for so long in at least six decades on Wall Street and Washington optimism may be

building the Federal Reserve poised to the economy toward a soft landing or

no landing but for 212 straight days no matter what the indicators have said and I think this is a great

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