Hello,

I'm a couple of capitalists, hope you're well. So, I've been doing a lot of thinking,

and I've changed my mind

about what I think will happen in 2024.

My base case has changed you see I was under the impression or my

base case was the United States would go into recession we have a hard

landing crash landing, financial crisis,

collapsed where we want to call it.

And I also believed that we would see consumer price inflation,

even if we had a hard landing because it's very very

difficult and we can see this going all the way back to the 1940s to have

actual deflation in the United States.

Very difficult for a variety of reasons that I'm not going to get into in this video.

But what I want to do is go over some data and then try to connect some dots and then kind of review how my base case

regarding 2024 has changed how it's evolved. So this is basically going to be a

whiteboard that I'm going to do without the whiteboard. So it might be a little difficult here, but first and foremost let's go over and check out this

chart that I think is going to completely blow your mind.

This is a chart of M2 money supply growth versus inflation and this red line is inflation as measured by the

CPI what the government will admit to and the black line P. I. What the government will admit to. And the black line is M2 money supply growth. Now what's

fascinating is we zoom in on where we are, where the money supply growth is negative, and I repeat,

negative, 3.31%.

Now you may say George Abbott, it's gone up up so much it doesn't really matter.

...