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Rebel Capitalist News

News: Bond Market Indicating Recession Is Getting Closer

Rebel Capitalist News

George Gammon

Thrive, Wealth, Gold, Finance, Macroeconomics, Education, Protect Wealth, Real Estate, Learn, Business, Investing, Government, Economics, How To

4.71K Ratings

🗓️ 25 February 2023

⏱️ 7 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The Rebel Capitalist helps YOU learn more about Macro, Investing, Entrepreneurship AND Personal Freedom.

Transcript

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0:00.0

Hello, Hello, Robo capitals, hope you're well.

0:02.0

Wanted to go over the bond market.

0:03.4

We know the curve is inverted, but it's actually getting steeper.

0:07.8

It's getting less inverted.

0:10.0

So does this mean the recession's over?

0:13.0

Does this mean we're going to have no landing?

0:16.0

We're talking about a soft landing or a hard landing.

0:18.0

How about no landing?

0:19.0

How about we don't even get a recession?

0:21.0

Maybe the yield curve was wrong.

0:22.0

It's going back to normal. Not so fast. Let's get

0:24.7

into the data, go to a chart. We'll start by looking at the yield curve. Three month,

0:30.5

minus 10 yearyear. year.

0:33.0

So we've got the inversion, or I should say I guess the 10-month, excuse me, the 10-year

0:40.4

minus the three months is how it would work.

0:42.6

So let's go to the last, it's called years,

0:45.9

so we can zoom in.

0:47.0

We could see right here how the steepest point

0:50.1

of the inversion with the three month and the 10 year was 1.32%. So we are starting to get less inverted.

1:00.1

It's starting to steepen up to the point where now it's under 100 basis points. Okay got it. Well let's look at history zoom out and we can see me we might not be out of the weeds.

1:13.7

Why?

1:14.4

Because every single time we go into a recession,

...

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