New Data Has Me Re-Thinking EVERYTHING
Rebel Capitalist News
George Gammon
4.7 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 19 May 2025
⏱️ 38 minutes
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hello, fellow, Rebel Capitalist, hope you're well. So I just stumbled upon some data that I found |
| 0:08.1 | absolutely fascinating. And it's making me challenge my own framework and my own base case as to |
| 0:16.4 | how 2025 plays out in terms of an economic contraction, economic growth in the United States. So I wanted |
| 0:24.3 | to quickly share that with you guys as soon as I could just go live here. And most of you know from |
| 0:29.2 | watching my videos that one of the things I really pay attention to is something called |
| 0:31.9 | a near term forward spread. Now, in doing so, I usually go to this website called neaternforwardspread.com. |
| 0:40.3 | And one of the main reasons I watch this is because the Fed themselves admit this is the spread, |
| 0:49.7 | as far as these esoteric interest rate spreads, they watch the most, and it has the most predictive |
| 0:55.3 | ability, the most predictive power. So let's go over here and look at what the near term |
| 1:00.9 | forward spread is doing right now. And we can see, I like that moving average. Let's leave it there. |
| 1:07.3 | So it's still inverted. It has not yet yet uninverted and when this thing uninverts |
| 1:13.3 | you know you got a problem or at least you have in the past that's the stuff hitting the fan |
| 1:18.9 | but based on this 90 day moving average we have not yet uninverted you guys can see it there |
| 1:25.6 | so i wanted to check this out today to see where it was, |
| 1:30.6 | what was doing. And I noticed this new link at the top of the website, perfect predictors.com. |
| 1:38.3 | Wow. Perfect predictor. Well, that's what I'm all about. A perfect recession indicator. So I wanted to go and see |
| 1:48.0 | what was going on here. So, and by the way, Snyder talks about the near term forward spread |
| 1:53.5 | quite a bit. And he is not only a fan of it, but he's also a fan of the people that put this together. So that being said, |
| 2:03.8 | you know, I give a little bit more weight as opposed to just some random person on TikTok or something |
| 2:10.1 | like that that had the perfect predictor, the perfect predictor index. And then they turned this into a website, perfect predictor.com. |
| 2:20.7 | So I wanted to see what was going on here. So I went ahead and clicked on the website. |
| 2:25.1 | And here we go. It's very simple, straightforward, just like the near term forward spread. |
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