4.7 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 13 May 2025
⏱️ 19 minutes
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0:00.0 | Hello, fellow Robo Capitalists, hope you're well. So we got big news out. The CPI just hit. |
0:06.7 | If you haven't heard, it's below expectations with all of the talk about the Trump |
0:13.9 | tariffs increasing inflation. In fact, I have heard the word stagflation over the last month, probably more than you used to hear at the 1970s. |
0:26.2 | Everybody was talking about stagflation, stagflation, stagflation, stagflation, stagflation, |
0:31.8 | except for the people here on the Rebel Capital's channel. |
0:36.3 | And if you watch my whiteboard video the other day on stagnation, |
0:38.8 | I concluded by saying, yeah, I don't think so. |
0:42.2 | It's not my base case because although some prices might go up, |
0:45.6 | others come down if nominal wages aren't going up. |
0:48.7 | I've been talking about this nonstop. |
0:51.1 | You guys have heard me at nauseam say, |
0:53.9 | if wages aren't going up, |
0:55.6 | just rob and Peter to pay Paul. And it's very difficult to have sustained |
1:01.4 | acceleration in consumer price inflation. So it's not to say that we won't have a CPI report |
1:08.9 | come out maybe next month. It's a little higher. Yeah, that's fine. |
1:12.2 | But the fact that, you know, or this idea, we're going from 2.4% to 3%, to 5% to 9% to 15%, which |
1:21.8 | was what you would imply was stagflation is nonsense. You don't get that in a recession or when the economy is slowing. |
1:30.0 | That's not a thing. It's always disinflationary. And so this was no surprise to the rebel capitalist |
1:37.8 | crew, as most of you know, that we had some continued disinflation. Now, it is true as we go over to the CNBC, let me do the |
1:46.5 | screen share. It is true that this understates inflation most likely, but what we're looking for |
1:51.5 | here is simply the trend. And the trend is down, even with tariffs for heaven's sakes. |
1:58.3 | So then you have to ask, okay, would the cpi be without the tariffs |
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