New CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on How to Regulate Prediction Markets

Odd Lots

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4.5 • 2K Ratings

🗓️ 12 February 2026

⏱️ 50 minutes

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Summary

We are rapidly entering a world in which there are odds on virtually everything. During the recent Super Bowl, the big prediction market platforms didn't just offer bets on the game itself, but also on more exotic facets, such as the first song that Bad Bunny would sing, even who would join Bad Bunny in the performance. And while a lot of people thinks this looks like gambling, it's actually regulated by the CFTC, an agency created in the 1970s to regulate derivatives. On this episode, we speak with new CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, who was nominated by President Trump and took his position in December. We talk to him about his philosophy, and why it is that these new bets are regulated as financial instruments, rather than gambling products. We talk about the tension that emerges when 18-year-olds can place bets on sports via prediction markets, even though in many states have laws on sports gambling, either banning it outright, or requiring participants to be at least 21. We also talk about crypto regulation, and whether perpetual futures -- which have exploded in the crypto space -- could soon be coming to traditional markets.

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Transcript

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0:00.0	UKG, their HR, pay, and workforce management tools help business leaders empower their people.
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0:09.2	Learn more at UKG.com slash work.
0:14.7	Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
0:33.5	Music Podcasts Radio News Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.
0:34.7	I'm Joe Wisenthall.
0:35.9	And I'm Tracy Allaway.
0:37.4	Tracy, did you watch the Super Bowl?
0:39.4	You know I was going to ask that, didn't you?
0:40.2	I knew it.
0:43.5	Actually, I was going to start exactly the same way. I did watch the Super Bowl, and so I feel empowered to ask you a very controversial question.
0:49.3	Oh, yeah.
0:50.3	Not which halftime show you watched, but did Cardi B perform at the Super Bowl?
0:57.4	Oh, right, because this was a big thing. I forgot that there was, you know what, I'm aware of various
1:03.8	sort of questions about prediction markets and things that people place bets on. Well, how did that
1:08.3	resolve? What was the basic issue here again? So I think it's still being resolved in various ways, but Cardi B. She was on set during
1:16.5	Bad Bunny's, you know, extravaganza. And she was kind of like dancing and singing along,
1:23.1	like mouthing words at least, along with other people like Pedro Pascal and Jessica Alba. Yeah, Lady Gaga. Well, Lady Gaga was like singing singing. Yeah, you're right, right, right. So the only reason this matters at all is because of prediction markets. Yeah. So there was a bet. Will Cardi B perform? Yeah. And now the question is, does standing on stage and kind of bobbing your head and mouthing words count as a performance?
1:47.2	Polymarket says it does.
1:49.5	Cali says it doesn't.
1:51.2	Oh, interesting.
1:51.9	Yeah, there you go.
	...

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