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The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Net Zero and Other Delusions: What Can't, Won't and Might Happen | Frankly 90

The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens

Science, Earth Sciences, Natural Sciences

4.8552 Ratings

🗓️ 4 April 2025

⏱️ 20 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Language is one of humanity's most unique and powerful tools. We are amazingly good at imagining the pictures created through words - almost to the point that even the most fantastical things can seem real. But how might this extraordinary ability backfire as we try to chart the course for the 21st century?

In this Frankly, Nate explores the limitations of using our imaginations to shape our understanding of what's possible through the use of three categories: what can't happen, what won't happen, and what might happen. Nate demonstrates how this framework can be used by going through one example of the many hurdles standing in the way of humanity - as we currently consume today - reaching Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050.

How are today's societal goals shaped by unrealistic expectations of what's possible under our current biophysical reality? What 'bottlenecks' constrain the possibilities of the future, and how might these change our expectations and preparations for what's to come? Finally, how can we use the logic of aggregate probability in our own lives to push the initial conditions of the future towards the best likelihoods for all life on Earth?

(Recorded April 1, 2025)

 

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Transcript

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0:00.0

Most humans think in words, and this is a big problem for our future.

0:07.0

When I say a sentence like, there is a gold-plated Hindenburg blimp with a giant Vladimir

0:17.0

face on it, floating over London, and lasers come out of Vladimir Putin's eyes

0:25.6

and destroy any restaurant that serves curry. You can imagine that in your minds, and of course,

0:33.7

it's fanciful and non-believable, but humans can transfer millions of possibilities

0:40.3

via our words and our mouths that can exist in the real world.

0:47.1

The challenge is that there are some sentences that sound very plausible,

0:53.1

like battery- filters in the ocean that take

0:59.5

energy and oxygen from the seawater so we can breathe underwater, or that we can build

1:05.4

technology that will allow global human culture at today's scale or larger have net zero emissions by 2050

1:13.9

relative to the 41 billion tons of emissions this year. So what ends up happening is these things

1:23.3

sound good, but there is a difference between three categories. What can't happen, what won't

1:32.2

happen, and what might happen. And unfortunately, most of the things in our public discourse about

1:39.2

the future are in the what can't happen and what won't happen category,

1:48.8

when we need to be focusing on the what might happen category.

1:51.3

And that's what I'd like to discuss today.

2:02.9

So first of all, what can't happen.

2:06.3

There's two subcategories of what can't happen.

2:09.1

One is there are physical laws of the universe.

2:13.4

There are physics and chemistry and thermodynamics.

2:30.5

If we have a wooden block that is one foot by two foot, we know for absolute certain the physical laws of the universe will not allow us to carve a four-foot man or dwarf out of it, or a six-foot-wide wooden car.

2:38.7

Now, we could carve a two-foot duck or a two-foot-wide shoes or a bunch of small spoons.

...

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