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Hi, and welcome to the Longview. I'm Dan Lefkowitz, strategist for Morning Star Indexes.

And I'm Christine Ben's Director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morning Star.

Our guest this week is Neil Shearing. Neil is group chief economist at Capital Economics, a London-based research firm.

He's also an associate fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank.

In his capital economics role, Neil manages a

team of economists and is a well-known voice in the investment community. He has served as chief

emerging markets economist and once managed Capital Economics New York office, having joined the

firm in 2006 from the United Kingdom's Treasury Ministry. He holds economics degrees from the University

of London and the University of York.

Neil, thanks so much for joining us on The Longview. Thanks very much for having me.

Absolutely. Well, let's start by getting the view from London. I've always enjoyed the capital

economics research format where you display your views versus consensus. So maybe we can start off by having

you kind of run through where you're most different from consensus currently. And it also would be

helpful to understand how you determine what consensus is. Yeah, good question. Actually, this is

fundamental to how we approach all of our work. A good place to start any forecast is to think about

what the consensus is and then to think how it will be wrong, because nine times out of ten,

...