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Short Wave

Nature Quest: The Earthquake Prediction Problem

Short Wave

NPR

Daily News, Nature, Life Sciences, Astronomy, Science, News

4.76K Ratings

🗓️ 25 November 2025

⏱️ 15 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Their whole life, producer Hannah Chinn has known about the Big One: a massive earthquake forecasted to hit the West Coast. Scientists say it’ll destroy buildings, collapse bridges, flood coastal towns and permanently shift the landscape. But how exactly do scientists know this much about the scope of earthquakes if they can’t even predict when those earthquakes are going to happen? Together with host Emily Kwong, Hannah goes on a quest for answers. Plus, they get into what a Cascadia earthquake has in common with a Thanksgiving turkey.

This story is part of Nature Quest, our monthly segment that brings you a question from a Short Waver who is noticing a change in the world around them. Have an environment-based question you want us to investigate on the next Nature Quest? Email us your question at [email protected].

Check out our previous episode on earthquake prediction.

Listen to every episode of Short Wave sponsor-free and support our work at NPR by signing up for Short Wave+ at plus.npr.org/shortwave.

Listen to Short Wave on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

This episode was produced by Hannah Chinn and Rachel Carlson. It was edited by Rebecca Ramirez. Tyler Jones checked the facts. The audio engineer was Kwesi Lee. Special thanks to scientists Paul Lundgren and Suzanne Carbotte.

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Transcript

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0:00.0

You're listening to Shortwave from NPR.

0:07.0

Hey, shortwavers, Emily Kwong here and Hannah Chin with this month's installment of NatureQuest.

0:13.0

And Emily, full disclosure, I'm doing something a little bit selfish today.

0:18.3

Instead of answering a real listener question, I'm using my producer privilege

0:22.7

TM to investigate a question that I've had for a while about earthquakes. Okay, tell me more.

0:29.9

So I'm from Portland, Oregon, and Portland is not a hot spot for earthquakes. We just don't

0:34.3

experience them multiple times a year, you know, the way Californians do.

0:38.5

But Portland is right next to the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which is this underwater fault

0:42.8

line in the Pacific Ocean that stretches from Canada all the way down to northern California.

0:48.5

And as long as I can remember, Portlanders have known that an earthquake is coming.

0:54.1

When we talk about it, we call it the big one.

0:56.5

A big one.

1:00.5

This sounds kind of scary, because I always picture, you know, Pacific Northwest is very, like, chill.

1:06.7

This is the opposite of chill.

1:08.0

It is the opposite of chill.

1:09.5

So I called up a seismologist.

1:15.6

His name's Diego Melgar, and he's the director of Crescent, the Cascadia region Earthquake Science Center.

1:16.6

And I asked him, like, what would an earthquake this big feel like?

1:20.6

You would feel shaking where it's difficult, maybe even impossible for you to stay standing,

1:25.6

for anywhere between one or three minutes. Start counting

1:29.5

right now and realize how long that is. Scientists say this earthquake, it'll demolish buildings,

1:36.8

rupture utility lines, liquefy soil. We might get significant collapses of bridges and any old

...

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