Greetings.

Flipping a coin of sorts, whether to record this frankly.

But I've been an observer of the human problematic for the last 20 years since I left Wall Street.

And I tend to focus on what I think is the biggest risk while keeping a view to the long

term.

I think the biggest risk in the next couple months in the next year is World War III, is nuclear

war between NATO and Russia. And even if it doesn't go nuclear,

it probably would go there in a conventional kinetic war.

The reason for this, frankly, and I'm leaving in a few hours to go on a 10-day trip,

and I wanted to record this because events are accelerating

is because I think at least living in the United States, we have been lulled into a sense

of complacency by the public and political narrative about the Ukraine situation.

I wanted to give some context with the core message,

which I may repeat two or five times in the next 10 or 15 minutes,

is that at this point of the war, a year and three months into it,

there's lots of background of 1992 and 2014

made on revolution and Crimea and the you know all the various Minsk agreements and what happened before.

It doesn't matter who is right at this point because the risks to our civilization, the

risks to our global, very fragile financial system, the risks to the

biosphere in case there is nuclear exchange, far, far, far outweigh any provincial blaming of

some outgroup or ideologies of what some downtrodden X group cares about

or whether Putin is a thug or any of those things are irrelevant to the stakes that we face.

...