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My History Can Beat Up Your Politics

Nate Silver vs. Alan Lichtman, Reagan Campaigning for VP Bush in 1988 and Pennsylvania as a Swing State

My History Can Beat Up Your Politics

Bruce Carlson

News, Politics, History

4.51.1K Ratings

🗓️ 30 September 2024

⏱️ 57 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Bunch of topics. We note that at this point in 1988, President Reagan had made stump speeches for his Vice President Bush. We also get into Pennsylvania's East and West sides, and a nearly complete history of PA's Presidential vote. And we get into an argument between two election predictors. Want more - there's a 4-part series on the 1864 election on Patreon - check it out at www.myhistorycanbeatupyourpoltics.com We are part of Airwave Media Network Check out Triviality, Plodding Through the Presidents, American Revolutionary War cast, For the Love of History and others! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

You're listening to an Airwave Media Podcast.

0:05.0

Okay, so we've got a variety of topics to talk about.

0:08.0

I'm going to talk about the little bit about the TIF between Nate Silver, the Polster Guy, and Alan Lichtman, the political science

0:16.7

professor, whoever talked about on this show and the author of the Keys to the

0:21.7

presidency and both of them squabbling over presidential

0:25.7

predictions why I think the fight is silly but I also want to defend Lickerman a

0:31.9

little bit because I think he's getting it on Twitter and it's

0:36.3

undeserved. We're also going to tell hey listen vice presidential debate

0:41.4

coming up we'll see how it goes.

0:44.0

It is notable that we are close to 50 years

0:48.0

of Vice Presidential debate, so that first one

0:51.4

was 1976 between Bob Dole and Walter Mondale.

0:57.0

Was it effective?

0:59.0

Yes, because Bob Dole comes in swinging calling Vietnam and World War II.

1:06.1

I mean, he doesn't name the wars, but he calls wars, Democrat wars and blames them

1:12.1

basically for starting wars in history.

1:14.4

Not a good performance, not a good look as we say now and

1:18.4

actually a little bit of a boost for Carter Mondale in a campaign where really everything counted because the polls were so

1:27.6

We'll see what happens with Wals and J.D. Vance they're both new, which means expectations aren't as much as a factor.

1:37.0

I will say this. I noted that when Walsh was picked as a Democrats vice presidential candidate that he continued to say I

1:46.2

can't wait to debate JD Vance and that struck me as something silly to say because you don't want to send expectations high.

2:00.0

You want to keep expectations low and you certainly don't want to say anything like I'm going to win the debate all of that I think since then there hasn't been as many of those type of statements and

...

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