NATE SILVER VS. ALAN LICHTMAN -Predicting with History or Polls? Also: Reagan Campaigning for VP Bush in 1988 and Pennsylvania as a Swing State

My History Can Beat Up Your Politics

Bruce Carlson

News, Politics, History

4.5 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 30 September 2024

⏱️ 59 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Bunch of topics. We note that at this point in 1988, President Reagan had made stump speeches for his Vice President Bush. We also get into Pennsylvania's East and West sides, and a nearly complete history of PA's Presidential vote. And we get into an argument between two election predictors. Want more - there's a 4-part series on the 1864 election on Patreon - check it out at www.myhistorycanbeatupyourpoltics.com We are part of Airwave Media Network Check out Triviality, Plodding Through the Presidents, American Revolutionary War cast, For the Love of History and others! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:35.0	Okay, so we've got a variety of topics to talk about.
0:38.0	I'm going to talk about a little bit about the TIF between Nate Silver, the Polster Guy, and Alan Lichtman, the political science professor,
0:47.8	whoever talked about on this show and the author of the Keys to the presidency, and both of them squabbling over presidential
0:55.8	predictions why I think the fight is silly but I also want to defend Lickerman a
1:01.9	little bit because I think he's getting it on Twitter and it's
1:06.4	undeserved. How else can tell hey listen vice presidential debate coming up we'll see
1:12.3	how it goes.
1:14.0	It is notable that we are close to 50 years of vice presidential debate,
1:19.7	so that first one was 1976 between Bob Dole and Walter Mondale.
1:27.0	Was it effective?
1:29.0	Yes, because Bob Dole comes in swinging calling Vietnam and World War II.
1:36.1	I mean he doesn't name the wars, but he calls wars, Democrat wars and blames them basically for starting wars in history.
1:45.0	Not a good performance, not a good look as we say now and
1:49.0	actually a little bit of a boost for Carter Mondale in a campaign where really everything counted because the polls were so
	...

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