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Hi, I'm John Donvan, moderator in chief, are open to debate. As many of you, our listeners know,

we occasionally offer an episode that isn't a

debate per se, but is aligned with our core themes and our curiosity. In this case, just ahead of the

2024 presidential election, we're offering a wide-ranging conversation with leading political

forecaster Nate Silver about his new book, On the Edge, The Art of Risking

Everything, where we take a close look at the dynamics of risk and how they shape power.

So over to my good friend, Nick Gillespie, Reasons Editor at Large, who moderated this

engaging conversation at a live event in New York City.

Welcome to Open to Debate. I'm Nick Gillespie, and I'll be guest hosting today's

episode. The 2024 election has been about the craziest in American history. With just

days to go, the polls are neck-and-neck polarization is through the roof. And all of us are

wondering, not just who's going to be the next

president of the United States, but what sort of country will be living in come January. It's a lot of

uncertainty, no matter what your political persuasion. And it seems like a perfect time then to see

what we can learn from people who excel at navigating uncertainty. So today, instead of a debate, I'm sitting down

with Nate Silver. Nate is a leading political forecaster and the founder and former editor-in-chief

of 538 who writes Silver Bulletin at Substack. He's also a former professional poker player and

the author of the best-selling book, On the Edge,

The Art of Risking Everything, a book where he discusses what we can learn from professional

risk takers about navigating uncertainty in the 21st century.

...