MYSTERY: Why Advanced Stats are WRONG about Jaylen Brown’s MVP Campaign

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4.7 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 7 January 2026

⏱️ 39 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Boston Celtics star Jaylen Brown generates MVP buzz despite advanced analytics questioning his impact—is the eye test more reliable than the numbers? Hosts John Karalis of Boston Sports Journal and Tom Westerholm break down Brown’s stats versus fellow contenders like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Dončić, and Jalen Brunson, exploring how bench lineups, defensive metrics, and team context shape MVP arguments. Why do analytics seem so harsh on Brown, and does his on-court presence outweigh statistical quirks? Other key topics include Boston’s on-off differential, defensive struggles, and the narrative surrounding Brown’s season with Jayson Tatum sidelined. The conversation covers memorable Celtics moments, a nostalgic Dee Brown dunk story, and potential shifts in MVP voting as the Thunder face adversity. Is Brown’s season the ultimate ‘lore MVP’ run? Hear insider insights, advanced analysis, and debate on whether numbers or narrative will define the Celtics' season.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Jalen Brown, a legitimate MVP candidate, but the advanced numbers don't like him.
0:06.3	What?
0:07.1	We're going to try to explain it right now on the Lockdown Celtics podcast.
0:11.1	Locked on Celtics pod, home of the winners, baby.
0:14.9	And welcome back to the Lockdown Celtics podcast right here on the Lockdown Podcast Network,
0:18.7	where it's your team every day.
0:20.2	Your team is the boston
0:21.2	Celtics and i talk about them every monday through friday plus bonus podcast when they play on
0:25.1	weekends so make sure you're subscribed wherever you get your podcast watch a show on youtube get into
0:28.8	the comment section share your thoughts with me i'm john carallis beat writer for boston sports
0:33.6	journal i've been covering the team for about 20 years doing this podcast for 10 and I've written a couple books about the team as well. Today show is brought to you by Fanduel. Before tip off on Fridays, check out the Fandul app and see what's dropping at NBA Happy Hour every Friday from 6 to 7.30 p.m. Eastern. Jalen Brown, legit MVP candidate. People, I've seen people talk online. I'm not sure
0:56.2	if they're voters or not. Some people have them as high as number two. Some people have them down
0:59.4	a little bit lower. But one thing is weirdly clear. Advanced analytics don't seem to like
1:05.6	Jaylen as much as they like other MVP candidates. And I can't quite figure it out.
1:12.6	So I've enlisted the help of Tom Westerholm to help me figure it out.
1:17.6	Tom.
1:19.0	Well, I mean, anytime there's, you know, Mr. Kramer, my 10th grade math teacher,
1:25.6	would be very pleased to hear that when analytics are involved, you got to get the mathematician in.
1:32.6	And that's me.
1:34.3	Notariously good at math.
1:37.6	So I'm glad I'm not good at talking.
1:39.9	So you have to be good at something.
	...

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