Today, I'd like to speak to you about a question that really got me thinking. So I was on

WhatsApp with my buddy and we were discussing the news that Open AI is allowing insiders,

that is, early investors in the companies and employees, to sell up to $10 billion of stock

at a $500 billion valuation. My friend asked me this very pointed and

helpful question. At this price, would you be a buyer or seller of Open AI? Now, investors have

lots of choices when they decide where they should put their money. That's based on

one level risk and return. It's based on their worldview. It's based on building a diversified

portfolio that rides out the bad times and wins in the good. So when my buddy asked me this

question about Open AI, yes, it's about whether I reckon Open

AI's value will go up or down in the coming years, but it's also about the other choices

one might have with this sort of notional investment in the firm. Would you be better off

putting your money elsewhere? Now, given OpenAI is a technology

stock, that's somewhere else, the easiest be the NASDAQ index. It's the stock index that

aggregates most of the big tech players. And so in my interpretation, the real question is,

do I think that Open AI is going to outperform the NASDAQ over the coming years?

Now, what I should remind you is that nothing I'm saying is financial advice, not a red cent of it.

So it's a fun experiment. I've been thinking about it.

So let's start with some

context, right? There is a benchmark here, right? Over the last decade, the NASDAQ index has

returned roughly 13% per year. It's pretty generous. Over 15 years, it's returned about 17% a year,

nearly 23% over the recent three years as the world has got excited about AI and this new

technology. So what does 17% that 15 year track record mean? It means that roughly every four or

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