Now, what I would like to do today is talk about what we're learning about how artificial intelligence may impact the labor market.

There's been so many words spilt over the past decade and more about what it might mean for jobs, creating this lovely portmanteau, the job apocalypse.

And we're looking for data, for evidence of that.

And this week, my friend Eric Brynjolfson and two of his collaborators came up with a new

paper, which I think is really robust and very, very interesting.

Eric is a professor at Stanford University, where he runs a digital economy lab, where I'm a digital

fellow as well. And in this paper, Eric and his collaborators Barrett Chandar and Ryu Chen

analyzed payroll data from ADP, which is a really large payroll processor globally, but very,

very strong in the US, handling payrolls for millions and millions of American workers.

And they were able to look at this data, correct for various confounders like COVID and

seasonality. And they identified a really, really interesting finding.

And that finding was that early career employees, people between the ages of 22 and 25,

in the most AI exposed roles, roles exposed to artificial intelligence such as customer service

or software development, experienced a 13% relative decline in deployment from 2022 onwards.

So this is a really important key finding. It's a substantial decline in employment

for those early career workers. And it was really focused, concentrated on AI-exposed occupations.

In contrast, for workers who had more experience in those particular professions and areas, employment

actually went up. You know, mid-career software developers, you saw a 10% increase in employment.

In the case of these early careers, employees, 20 to 25, there was a 13% decrease. So it's really, really

meaningful, that bifurcation. And if you looked at less exposed occupations, so you looked at

sales and marketing or health aides or stop clerks, you didn't see the same suppression of employment,

particularly for that early career employees. So if you look

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