More Election Predictions, Polling Problems, Trump's Tariff Talk

The Politics Guys

Michael Baranowski

Politics, News

4.5 • 772 Ratings

🗓️ 26 October 2024

⏱️ 59 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Jay and Justin open this episode with their predictions for the upcoming presidential election, with Justin forecasting a narrow Harris victory and Jay expecting Trump to return to the White House. They also discuss how traditional polling methods might be missing key voter segments and how social desirability bias could affect Trump supporters' willingness to participate in polls. Next, they look at early voting patterns and Republican voter registration trends, which they agree could be favorable indicators for Trump. They examine the challenges of predicting likely voters and how different pollsters' methods can yield radically different results from the same raw data. They close by considering Trump's recent proposal for widespread tariffs, including a potential 10-20% baseline tariff on all imports and 60% on Chinese goods. Jay, drawing on traditional Republican free-market principles, expresses serious concerns about these proposals, while both hosts discuss how such policies could impact the American economy. They explore the mythology of 1950s American industrialism and why attempting to recreate that era through tariffs might be both impractical and economically harmful. The Politics Guys on Facebook | X Check out the Sustainable Planet podcast, as well as the free Sustainable Planet Substack. Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible. You can support us or change your level of support at patreon.com/politicsguys or politicsguys.com/support. On Venmo we’re @PoliticsGuys. The Politics Guys is part of The Democracy Group, a network of podcasts that examines what's broken in our democracy and how we can work together to fix it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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1:00.3	Atheists, agnostics, long-haired widows, short-haired widows, vandal, boolegous.
1:05.5	Love the government, hug the government, love the government, hug the government, love, the government, hug the government. Welcome to the politics, guys, a place for bipartisan, rational, and civil debate on American politics and policy.
1:18.7	I'm Jay Carson, your host's sitting in for Mike Baranowski this week.
1:23.6	I'm joined by my colleague, Justin Holmes, a professor of political science at Northern Iowa
1:29.7	University. Good morning, Justin. Good morning, Jay. How are you doing? I'm heading into the
1:35.3	weekend with all the confidence of Ulnar Palmer heading to the clubhouse.
1:39.7	You're gracious. But so this will be a good show.
1:49.5	Our topics this morning, our first one is basically election paloosa, right?
1:55.5	We're sort of going to just talk through where we stand more or less a week or so out.
2:03.1	And I will turn to Justin largely because of his expertise in like the actual numbers of these things. As you know, I tend to shoot from the hip and work by instinct where Justin is an
	...

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