More Compute Power Doesn't Produce AGI
Naval
Naval Ravikant
4.8 • 2.4K Ratings
🗓️ 27 October 2021
⏱️ 2 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | The artificial general intelligence crew gets this completely wrong too. |
| 0:03.0 | Just add more compute power and you'll get intelligence when we don't really know what it is |
| 0:07.6 | underneath that makes this creative and allows us to come with good explanations. |
| 0:11.1 | People talk a lot about GPT-3, the text matching engine that OpenAI put out, which is very |
| 0:16.0 | impressive piece of software. |
| 0:17.7 | But they say, hey, I can use GPT-3 to generate great tweet. |
| 0:20.7 | Well, that's because first, as a human, you're selecting which tweets out of all the garbage |
| 0:24.5 | that it generates are good. |
| 0:25.9 | Second, it's using some combination of plagiarism and synonym matching and so on to come up with |
| 0:31.2 | plausible sounding stuff. |
| 0:32.7 | But the easiest way to see that what's generating doesn't actually make any sense is just ask |
| 0:36.3 | it to follow a question. |
| 0:37.9 | Take a GPT-3 generated output and ask it why? |
| 0:41.3 | Why is that the case or make a prediction based on that and watch it completely fall apart? |
| 0:46.6 | Because there's no underlying explanation. |
| 0:49.2 | It's parroting. |
| 0:50.2 | It's a brilliant, Bayesian reasoning. |
| 0:52.1 | It's dating from what it already sees out there generated by humans on the web. |
| 0:55.5 | It doesn't have an underlying model of reality that can explain the scene in terms of the |
| 1:00.3 | unseen. |
| 1:01.3 | And I think that's critical. |
| 1:02.3 | That is what humans do uniquely that no other creature, no other computer, no other intelligence, |
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