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The a16z Show

Monopolies vs Oligopolies in AI

The a16z Show

a16z

Science, Innovation, Business, Entrepreneurship, Culture, Disruption, Software Eating The World, Technology

4.41.1K Ratings

🗓️ 28 August 2025

⏱️ 77 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

In this interview from the 20VC podcast, Martin Casado (a16z General Partner) joins Harry Stebbings to unpack the state of AI, the rise of coding models, the future of open vs. closed source, and how value is shifting across the stack. Martin offers a candid view of the opportunities and dangers shaping AI and venture capital today.

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

There's only been one sin, and that one sin is zero-sum thinking.

0:07.1

We always worry about, like, oh, is this defensible? Oh, will this layer get margin? Will this

0:12.6

layer get value? And the answer has kind of been unilaterally, yes. The answer has been

0:18.6

every layer has gotten value. Every layer has winners. These markets are

0:22.9

so large and they're growing so fast. We're actually seeing brand effects take place. In this

0:29.8

phase of model scaling, a lot of the approaches to scaling don't generalize. This gives a ton of room for the application developers to build their own models.

0:43.3

I think that right now, open source is most dangerous because China is better at it than we are.

0:52.8

To be on the podcast, we're sharing a conversation from our friends at 20VC with A16Z

0:58.1

general partner Martine Casado.

1:00.4

They cover the state of AI investing, why the real sin is zero-sum thinking, how value

1:05.4

is being created at every layer of the stack, and the risks of monopolies versus the reality

1:10.2

of concentrated markets.

1:12.1

Let's get into it.

1:15.9

Martine, man, I love our conversations.

1:18.2

I was so excited when you said you'd join me again.

1:20.5

Thank you so much for doing this, man.

1:22.1

So excited to be here.

1:23.7

It's great to see you.

1:25.1

Dude, I freaking hate these things.

1:26.7

How did you get into Venture intro questions? So I just want to dive right in. Dude, I freaking hate these things. How did you get into venture intro questions?

1:29.2

So I just want to dive right in.

1:30.5

It is a freaking nuts time.

...

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