Monologue: What If I'm Right?
Better Offline
Cool Zone Media and iHeartPodcasts
4.6 • 687 Ratings
🗓️ 29 August 2025
⏱️ 21 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
In this week’s Better Offline monologue, Ed considers what would happen if he’s right about the AI bubble bursting - and the consequences of three years of myth-peddling journalism and markets addicted to growth at all costs.
FT: Microsoft talks set to push OpenAI’s restructure into next year
https://www.ft.com/content/b81d5fb6-26e9-417a-a0cc-6b6689b70c98
Sherwood: Nvidia, the asset manager, had a massive Q2 thanks to CoreWeave’s rally
https://sherwood.news/markets/nvidia-the-asset-manager-had-a-massive-q2-thanks-to-coreweaves-rally/
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | This is an I-Heart podcast. |
| 0:02.6 | Guaranteed Human. |
| 0:06.0 | Quarzo Media. |
| 0:08.9 | Hail, traveler. |
| 0:10.0 | Welcome to this week's better off-line monologue. |
| 0:12.0 | I'm your host, Ed Zittron. |
| 0:17.5 | So I'm reading this the day after InVidia put out there, August 27th earnings. And I'm reading this the day after NVIDIA put out their August 27th earnings, and I'm not sure anybody really knows how to react. |
| 0:27.4 | While NVIDIA beat estimates in general, they, for the second quarter running, missed analyst estimates on data center revenue, which is 88% of their revenue where all the GPUs are coming in at $41.1 billion on an estimated |
| 0:39.4 | $41.3 billion. The market also has a very unhealthy relationship with this company. InVIDIA grew |
| 0:45.1 | like 50% or something year over year, but because they didn't grow 112% or whatever year over year, |
| 0:51.0 | people are the babies and the markets are soiling their diapers. And honestly, |
| 0:54.9 | it's because really, it's unhealthy. The unrealistic valuations that Invidia has been given are |
| 0:59.9 | finally causing problems. And as a reminder, Invidia is the company that makes the specialized |
| 1:05.1 | GPUs used in effectively all-generative AI and has seen unprecedented stock growth as a result of |
| 1:10.2 | this hype cycle. |
| 1:11.6 | The magnificent seven stocks, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Tesla, and of course |
| 1:15.9 | NVIDIA make up 35% of the value of the US stock market. |
| 1:19.9 | And as I mentioned on the AI money trap, they assent a capital expenditures of which |
| 1:23.8 | Nvidia makes up a large chunk by, well, their GPUs do at least, accounted for more growth than all consumer spending combined. |
| 1:31.9 | So, on so many levels, Nvidia really is the AI bubble. They're the only company making a profit on AI, and 42% of their revenue is from the magnificent seven companies buying their GPUs. |
| 1:43.2 | And their financial health and continued |
| 1:44.7 | growth is a barometer for the future growth of this nonsense bullshit bubble that I'm tired of |
... |
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