Monday - October 6, 2025
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 6 October 2025
⏱️ 13 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4mVyUro
Market Analysis and Economic Insights: The Monday Edition
David Bahnsen, host from Newport Beach, California, presents the Monday edition of Dividend Cafe. He starts with a brief mention of sports events, then discusses market activity, noting minor changes in the DOW and gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. David highlights the fifth consecutive month of market gains since September and evaluates historical performance of the S&P 500 after such streaks, concluding there's no clear prediction for the sixth month. He further examines market volatility in midterm election years, correlations with political events, and economic indicators like 10-year bond yields, ISM services sector performance, auto sales, and the Case Shiller home price index. David also reports on optimistic developments in Gaza and Japan's election of its first female Prime Minister. He concludes by touching on the impact of U.S. tariff decisions on the pharmaceutical sector, aid for soybean farmers, and anticipated actions from the Federal Reserve.
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
01:26 Historical Market Trends and Midterm Election Insights
04:53 Sector Performance and Global News
08:54 Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Updates
11:50 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:10.0 | Hello and welcome to the Monday edition of Dividing Cafe. I'm your host, David Bonson, coming to you live from Newport Beach, California, one day after |
| 0:23.7 | a wonderful Dallas Cowboy victory over the New York Jets and in a weekend where USC had no |
| 0:30.6 | opportunity to lose the game because they didn't play one. |
| 0:34.4 | The market today opened down, flat, kind of around the flat line, but down a tiny bit, |
| 0:42.5 | and then within a few minutes was down about 300 points on the Dow, while the S&P and NASDAQ were |
| 0:48.9 | both up. About a half hour later, the Dow was back to even. S&P and NASDAQ were still up. |
| 0:56.0 | And then from that point forward, all three indices just sort of stayed right around where they were, more or less, for the remaining four or five hours of trading. |
| 1:07.0 | So the Dow did close down 63 points, which is just 14 basis points in percentage terms. |
| 1:14.5 | And the S&P 500 was up 36 basis points in percentage terms and the NASDAQ up 71 basis points. |
| 1:23.6 | So obviously a bit more tech heavy of a day, but it was actually consumer discretionary that was the leading performer today up a little over 1% with real estate, the bottom performer, down 1%, everything else somewhere in between. |
| 1:39.3 | September was the fifth month in a row that the market has been up. Now, this is a little data point |
| 1:46.7 | from a research report I read over the weekend that you can do with it what you please, |
| 1:51.6 | but there's a reason I'm sharing it. Out of the 11 times that the S&P 500 has been up five |
| 1:59.1 | months in a row since 2009. |
| 2:01.6 | There were five times that it was positive in the sixth month |
| 2:06.6 | and six times it was negative. |
| 2:08.6 | So basically 50-50. |
| 2:10.6 | So why am I sharing this factoid after five positive months? |
| 2:13.6 | To share that what we know about the six month is nothing whatsoever. And even the |
| 2:21.0 | history of this bearing out with a literal 50-50 breakdown of what happens next. Speaking of |
| 2:28.6 | worthless historical factoid, this is, I share for historical anecdotal purposes and will quickly also explain why it is |
... |
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