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The Simple Handicap: Daily NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

Monday November 28th, 2022 - NFL Odds, Picks and Analysis

The Simple Handicap: Daily NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

Adam Chernoff

Football, Sports

4.81.3K Ratings

🗓️ 28 November 2022

⏱️ 27 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

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Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Good morning, everyone. The simple handicap for Monday, November 28th. Thank you for making me a part of your morning as always recording this on a Sunday evening. The late games just finished up. It is 6 p.m. Mountain Standard Time, about 20 minutes before kickoff of the Packers and the Eagles.

0:17.0

These are my first reactions to all of the games that we are going to see in NFL week 13. You're going to get some huing and high and some thoughts as we go through all these games looking at the points,

0:28.0

looking at the totals as they start to populate here on the odds board. Before we get rolling, hope everybody had a fantastic Thanksgiving long weekend. Hope you got to spend a lot of time with family and friends watching football, taking a bit of a break, relaxing back to it now, whether you're listening on a Sunday evening or on your way to work to get things back going Monday morning, hopefully all is going well with you after a few days away with family and friends. We'll get things started off with Thursday night football, the Buffalo Bills on the road at the New England Patriots, the Bills listed as

0:58.0

five and a half point favorites. Not fully available yet. We aren't seeing a number yet posted at Chris. We're not seeing a number posted at circa everywhere else that does have it up is showing a five and a half. Both of these two teams did play on Thanksgiving. So it is a full week of rest for each of them.

1:16.0

The Patriots looked, I think, surprising to a lot of folks. And I know that there was a laundry list of ways that the Patriots could have ended up losing that game or potentially should have won that game or however you want to look at it. It was a very unlucky game all the way around for the Patriots. But the big surprise was really how willing they were to push the ball down field and air it out. That was an offense that I think many people had sort of written off for dead. And as soon as things shifted, they got indoors.

1:46.0

They got matched up against the bad passing defense in Minnesota. It looked a lot different and it looked very effective. There's some injury stuff lingering with Jacobi Myers. We'll see the full extent of that.

1:59.0

But certainly a much different look for the Patriots on the bills side a bit of a grind it out game against Detroit. And that was really a difficult situation and a tough 96 hours all the way around for Buffalo.

2:12.0

They had this no storm. They had the travel delay on the way to their game on Sunday, which meant they had to leave Saturday because of the game being moved and go play in the Detroit. They went back home.

2:23.0

They came back to Detroit. And while they did have the turnovers, they had some bad red zone luck against the Lions. There was some fourth down luck that went against them as well.

2:35.0

Now there was a game at 28, 25 on the final. There was maybe a slight, I'd say slightly misleading in some ways. The really big thing that jumped out was even with Trudevius Whiteback, even with Matt Milano in the middle of that defense.

2:51.0

The bills defense just let Detroit get whatever they wanted all game long and could not consistently get off of the field and there's a big favorite.

3:01.0

Obviously I sent that on telegram. There's a losing bet was maybe a bit of an oversight when you consider maybe some lingering issues on the defensive side and it maybe isn't going to get any better with Von Miller now going to be missing an extended period of time.

3:16.0

An interesting number here at five and a half, not sure I have a glaring opinion one way or the other at this moment, but certainly two teams that I think in a public setting in terms of just how many people were watching looked very different than what we've sort of known them to be over the last couple of weeks.

3:37.0

On the Sunday, the jets on the road at the Vikings, I know that I'm, I'm on a totals diet is the way that I'm putting it.

3:48.0

I don't know how you have the Vikings is anything but a dead over team at this point, their defense is bottom eight in the league and that's probably being generous.

3:57.0

They're offense when facing opposing defenses that aren't among the best in the league can be very effective. Adam Thielen is back to full health.

4:08.0

He's now becoming a very solid contributor alongside Justin Jefferson, the run game is solid.

4:14.0

Kirk cousins is erratic, but nevertheless when you look at the Vikings, just a dead over team matched up against the jets.

4:22.0

It's a bit of a quirky matchup because there's a couple ways that you can look at this jets team and it actually reminds me a lot of the Patriots team.

4:32.0

So Zach Wilson gets benched and the benching wasn't just a benching. He was put inactive and it was just full on punishment from Robert Soloff for how Zach Wilson handled himself.

4:43.0

You could see on the field around Mike White that this offense was acting visibly different.

4:51.0

Never mind how well they performed, but just acting visibly different and the most obvious spot of this occurring was Elijah Moore getting the touchdown pass and how Garrett Wilson, the entire offensive line, everybody ran up to him.

...

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