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The Dividend Cafe

Monday - February 23, 2026

The Dividend Cafe

The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group

Business, Retirement Planning, Dividend Growth Investing, Estate Planning, Monetary Policy, Wealth Management, Macro Economics, Investing

4.9569 Ratings

🗓️ 23 February 2026

⏱️ 19 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40qp47X

Snowed in New York recording opens with a sharp selloff (Dow -822; S&P -1%+; Nasdaq -1.1%). Weakness tied more to AI valuation and pressure in tech and financials than tariffs. The 10-year yield fell to ~4.03%; defensives led.

AI capex for 2026 is pegged at $650B across five firms. Nvidia’s $30B OpenAI investment is expected to cycle back via chip orders.

The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that IEEPA cannot be used to impose tariffs; Congress retains tariff authority. Refund mechanics remain unclear.

Possible alternatives include Section 122 (150-day limit) and the more complex 301 and 232 routes. Strategas estimates a net $70B tariff reduction even if some measures return.

Refunds could total $120–130B, potentially stimulative, though implementation may be uneven. July’s USMCA review approaches amid improving U.S.–Mexico ties and rising U.S.–Canada tensions.

Q4 GDP was 1.4%; 2025 growth seen at 2.2% vs. 2.8% in 2024. Housing is softening, with markets pricing in 2–3 Fed cuts toward ~3%.

00:00 Snowed In Intro

01:15 Market Selloff Snapshot

03:24 AI Capex Reality Check

04:52 Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

06:33 Section 122 Workaround

08:06 Other Tariff Pathways

09:40 Economic Impact Estimates

10:44 Refunds and USMCA Fallout

12:56 GDP Housing and Fed Cuts

15:25 Geopolitics and Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio

0:06.5

and dividends in your understanding of economic life.

0:11.9

Well, hello and welcome to the Monday Dividend Cafe where I did not think I would be here in the

0:17.7

New York office today recording, but flights have been canceled

0:21.7

galore. I will not be able to make it back to California this week now. So stuck here in New York

0:27.4

City where it has been a fascinating snowstorm and lots of action going on. But that doesn't

0:36.2

mean that we're not here to bring you the div cafe and it will be

0:40.3

like a normal week. Most of you around the country won't even know what's going on. But this is a

0:46.3

special divin cafe because Friday was a day for the ages with the Supreme Court announcing,

0:53.3

and I would add as expected, and I would add, as expected, and I would add

0:57.3

correctly, that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to implement tariffs

1:06.0

was, in fact, unconstitutional. And so what that did is immediately provoke a lot of questions as to

1:13.7

what will happen with the tariffs, what will happen to the U.S. importers that have been paying them,

1:20.6

and not only some of the legal, but economic ramifications. I want to walk through all of that

1:26.5

today. Let's quickly, though, because it did end up

1:29.6

being a pretty big down day in markets. Let's also discuss some of the market stuff before we go

1:35.6

and pivot to the Supreme Court and tariff conversation. The Dow was down 822 points today,

1:42.5

which is 1.66%. The S&P was not down as much, but still over 1%.

1:49.3

And the NASDAQ was down a little over 1.1%. If you hear that a lot of this market response

1:57.0

today was related to President Trump announcing he's going to try a different rationale

2:01.9

for tariffs. Please understand that he did that on Friday. And the markets were up Friday.

2:08.6

And then it was pretty well known that they were still looking for various other ways to try

...

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