Monday - February 23, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 23 February 2026
⏱️ 19 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40qp47X
Snowed in New York recording opens with a sharp selloff (Dow -822; S&P -1%+; Nasdaq -1.1%). Weakness tied more to AI valuation and pressure in tech and financials than tariffs. The 10-year yield fell to ~4.03%; defensives led.
AI capex for 2026 is pegged at $650B across five firms. Nvidia’s $30B OpenAI investment is expected to cycle back via chip orders.
The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that IEEPA cannot be used to impose tariffs; Congress retains tariff authority. Refund mechanics remain unclear.
Possible alternatives include Section 122 (150-day limit) and the more complex 301 and 232 routes. Strategas estimates a net $70B tariff reduction even if some measures return.
Refunds could total $120–130B, potentially stimulative, though implementation may be uneven. July’s USMCA review approaches amid improving U.S.–Mexico ties and rising U.S.–Canada tensions.
Q4 GDP was 1.4%; 2025 growth seen at 2.2% vs. 2.8% in 2024. Housing is softening, with markets pricing in 2–3 Fed cuts toward ~3%.
00:00 Snowed In Intro
01:15 Market Selloff Snapshot
03:24 AI Capex Reality Check
04:52 Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
06:33 Section 122 Workaround
08:06 Other Tariff Pathways
09:40 Economic Impact Estimates
10:44 Refunds and USMCA Fallout
12:56 GDP Housing and Fed Cuts
15:25 Geopolitics and Wrap Up
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.5 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:11.9 | Well, hello and welcome to the Monday Dividend Cafe where I did not think I would be here in the |
| 0:17.7 | New York office today recording, but flights have been canceled |
| 0:21.7 | galore. I will not be able to make it back to California this week now. So stuck here in New York |
| 0:27.4 | City where it has been a fascinating snowstorm and lots of action going on. But that doesn't |
| 0:36.2 | mean that we're not here to bring you the div cafe and it will be |
| 0:40.3 | like a normal week. Most of you around the country won't even know what's going on. But this is a |
| 0:46.3 | special divin cafe because Friday was a day for the ages with the Supreme Court announcing, |
| 0:53.3 | and I would add as expected, and I would add, as expected, and I would add |
| 0:57.3 | correctly, that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to implement tariffs |
| 1:06.0 | was, in fact, unconstitutional. And so what that did is immediately provoke a lot of questions as to |
| 1:13.7 | what will happen with the tariffs, what will happen to the U.S. importers that have been paying them, |
| 1:20.6 | and not only some of the legal, but economic ramifications. I want to walk through all of that |
| 1:26.5 | today. Let's quickly, though, because it did end up |
| 1:29.6 | being a pretty big down day in markets. Let's also discuss some of the market stuff before we go |
| 1:35.6 | and pivot to the Supreme Court and tariff conversation. The Dow was down 822 points today, |
| 1:42.5 | which is 1.66%. The S&P was not down as much, but still over 1%. |
| 1:49.3 | And the NASDAQ was down a little over 1.1%. If you hear that a lot of this market response |
| 1:57.0 | today was related to President Trump announcing he's going to try a different rationale |
| 2:01.9 | for tariffs. Please understand that he did that on Friday. And the markets were up Friday. |
| 2:08.6 | And then it was pretty well known that they were still looking for various other ways to try |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2026.

