Monday - April 13, 2026
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 569 Ratings
🗓️ 13 April 2026
⏱️ 10 minutes
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Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cmGmIS
In this Monday Dividend Cafe, David recaps a volatile session in which futures fell 400–500 points after Iran negotiations failed, then markets rallied into the close as investors weighed a new U.S. strategy: a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz aimed at halting Iranian trade and forcing reopening. Oil spiked about 8% overnight but ended up roughly 1.5% to around $98, while estimates suggest the blockade could cost Iran about $275M/day in exports and $150M/day in imports. Bahnsen expects continued volatility and notes a tariff threat tied to arms sales to Iran was not taken seriously by markets. He also reviews CPI (3.3% headline, 2.6% core; gasoline up 21% MoM), weak existing home sales, uncertainty around Fed leadership and rate cuts, why U.S. producers focus on futures pricing, and the start of earnings season, with an AI-focused episode planned Friday.
00:00 Market Whiplash Recap
00:43 Iran Blockade Strategy
01:35 Oil Spike and Volatility
02:59 Blockade Costs and Outlook
04:05 Inflation and Tariff Talk
04:55 Housing Market Check
05:24 Fed Uncertainty and Rates
06:25 Why US Oil Output Lags
07:19 Earnings and AI Preview
07:39 Wrap Up and Thanks
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividend Cafe, weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.5 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.1 | Hello and welcome to the Monday edition of Dividend Cafe. |
| 0:15.8 | We have closed a wild day in the markets. |
| 0:18.7 | Futures were down about four or five hundred points last night after |
| 0:22.3 | the failed Iran negotiations fell apart. And then right at the market open, we were down, but then |
| 0:29.8 | more or less, almost from the beginning, began going higher and rallied all the way into the |
| 0:36.2 | close. There's a number of reasons for that we're going to |
| 0:39.0 | cover. I'm going to try to spend most of our time today on market-oriented issues related to |
| 0:44.5 | Iran, some of the updates of what's taking place in the Iran strategy. And then we have a couple |
| 0:50.9 | anecdotal things on the Fed on housing and inflation. |
| 0:55.7 | So let me basically say that what took place over the weekend that we know was that the |
| 1:01.2 | negotiators went home and no deal was found. |
| 1:04.1 | The C-Spire remains in effect, essentially, at least it seems to be. |
| 1:08.7 | But what the president announced is that he is instituting a blockade of the |
| 1:13.0 | Strait of Hormuz, where what he intends to do is basically force a reopening by halting any Iranian trade. |
| 1:20.2 | Any vessels that have been paying a toll to a round to get through will be seized, and they are taking a very different approach to |
| 1:29.8 | try to force Iranian cooperation. You could argue it's a bit of a strategy shift from military |
| 1:37.3 | leverage to economic leverage and perhaps by the end of the day today, what you saw in markets |
| 1:43.5 | was a pretty broad confidence that |
| 1:46.2 | this strategy may just work. Oil had gone up 8% overnight and then closed only up 1.5%. |
| 1:53.3 | I believe it closed it right at $98. It's still very high, but it had gone all the way back |
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