I was wrong I was wrong I was wrong I was wrong. I was wrong. I was wrong.

According to members of this audience, those are your favorite words. I was wrong.

You love hearing the tales of my wrongness, particularly when they come from me, when I talk about being wrong.

So let's talk about me being wrong.

Earlier this off season, I was wrong about Jordi Nelson.

We had Jordi Nelson ranked outside the top 10. I was light on the

light on the top 10. And the justification for that ranking was light on the quantitative analysis.

Not saying it was baseless, but it lacked sound analytical underpinning.

Because Jordi Nelson was number two in the NFL in fantasy points per game last year among wide receivers.

So I'm projecting him to precipitously decline in 2017.

Going from a top two wide receiver to outside the top 10, how is that possible? Well, I don't actually

think it's possible any longer. I thought it was possible. I said, oh, he's turned 32, 32!

32! Look at the age adjusted productivity curve. Yes. We have all the age adjusted productivity curves

available on the Dynasty Dominator.

Check it out. Go to Player profiler.com forward slash guides and download the Dynasty

Dominator book. In there we lay out the age adjusted production curves for

quarterback's running backs wide receivers and tight ends and you can see a

significant negative slope in the curve from age 31 to age 32.

Generally speaking, 32 year old wide receivers produce less fantasy points than 31 year old wide receivers.

You'll find less wide receivers in the top 24 that are aged 32 than 31.

That's what that means. But just because a macro trend exists doesn't mean that you have to automatically apply every player.

Doesn't mean that every player deserves to be discounted according to the slope of that curve.

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