Mikhail Samonov – Lessons from Two Centuries of Financial History | #502

The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing

The Idea Farm

Business, Investing, Management

4.7 • 938 Ratings

🗓️ 4 October 2023

⏱️ 73 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Today’s guest is Mikhail Samonov, CEO of Two Centuries Investments, which was established to create long term wealth for investors through its blend of innovative and behaviorally focused investment strategies. In today’s episode, Mikhail walks through what led him to focus so much on ‘long history’ in his research. He shares lessons learned from studying two centuries of financial returns, including momentum and asset allocation. He also spends time explaining how he’s using AI to study intangible value and company cultures. (1:29) - Welcome Mikhail to the show (2:30) - Why such a focus on long-history? (3:04) - Two Centuries of Price-Return Momentum; Two Centuries of Multi-Asset Momentum (12:41) - Investors often underestimate risks, ignore history (18:11) - Investment comfort zones vary by generation (25:15) - Innovation and creativity are crucial for quantitative investors (34:26) - Applying research on intangibles using NLP (41:00) - CultureLine uses AI to analyze workplace culture, aiding investors and enhancing ESG models (45:46) - Story about Steve Jobs adding "creative" to Apple's 10K (49:46) - Deep dive into asset allocation strategies and their long-term resilience; A Century of Asset Allocation Crash Risk (59:42) - Why investors underestimate drawdowns (1:03:54) - What investment belief Mikhail holds that most of his professional peers do not (1:07:09) - Mikhail’s most memorable investment Learn more about Mikhail: Two Centuries; CultureLine; LinkedIn; Twitter ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only) Sponsor: Today’s episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world’s largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here. Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at [email protected] ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to the Med Faber Show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth.
0:09.0	Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas, all to help you grow wealthier and wiser. the at Cambria Investment Management. Did in industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Cambria's funds on this
0:24.2	podcast.
0:25.2	All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not
0:28.4	reflect the opinion of Cambria Investment Management or its affiliates.
0:31.3	For more information, visit Cambria Investments.com.
0:33.4	Welcome, my friends. We have a special episode today. Our guest today is
0:41.3	Mikhail Saminov, one of my favorite investment researchers.
0:45.8	He's also the CEO of Two Centuries Investments, which he established to create long-term
0:49.6	wealth for investors through its blend of innovative and behaviorally focused
0:52.8	investing strategies. Today's episode, Michael walks through what led him to
0:56.9	focus so much on long history in his research. He shares lessons learned from
1:01.4	studying two centuries of financial returns. That's a long back test,
1:06.1	including value strategies, momentum, asset allocation. He also spends time explaining how he's using AI to study intangible value in company
1:15.8	cultures.
1:16.8	There's a lot packed in the year.
1:18.6	Make sure to visit the show notes at mebbf favor.com.
1:26.8	This episode is brought to you by 10 East. Long time listeners know I've invested in private markets quite a bit myself,
1:31.0	but with access to these markets broadening, it can be hard to know where to find
1:34.5	vetted high quality offerings. That's where Ten East comes in. Ten East is a platform where
1:39.5	qualified investors can co-invest on a deal by deal basis across private equity private credit
1:45.4	real estate venture and other one-off opportunities typically unavailable through
	...

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