Mike Wilson: Why Trade Tensions Are Only Part of the Story

Thoughts on the Market

Morgan Stanley

Strategy, Alternatives, Macro, Equities, Fixed Income, Investing, Global, Business, Markets, Economics

4.8 • 1.4K Ratings

🗓️ 10 June 2019

⏱️ 3 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Investors and media have been hyper-focused on trade and Fed policymaking. But according to Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson, some key economic data points are the real story to watch.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
0:04.0	I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity
0:07.0	Strategists for Morgan Stanley.
0:09.0	Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives,
0:11.0	I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace.
0:15.0	We're recording this on Monday, June 10th at 9 a.m. Easter.
0:19.0	So let's get after it.
0:20.0	Investor attention continues to be focused on the same two things.
0:22.8	Trade and the Fed.
0:24.0	First on trade.
0:25.1	While US China tensions remain elevated
0:27.4	and hopes for a deal by the upcoming G20 meeting
0:30.4	in late June fade, equity markets are trading higher this morning on the news
0:34.2	that the US and Mexico have come to an agreement on restraining immigrant flow to the US
0:39.7	in order to avoid the implementation of tariffs by the administration.
0:43.3	So what's really going on here?
0:44.8	I think we have a classic case of oversold equity markets bouncing from key technical support
0:49.6	levels reached at the end of May.
0:51.2	A deal between the U. the US and Mexico reminds us that
0:53.9	agreements can come quickly and so investors have assumed the same thing could
0:57.7	happen with the US and China. Given the difficulty of trying to handicap the
1:01.6	outcome on the US-China trade deal, we've been focusing more on things we can analyze.
	...

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