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Thoughts on the Market

Mike Wilson: Knowing Where to Look

Thoughts on the Market

Morgan Stanley

Strategy, Alternatives, Macro, Equities, Fixed Income, Investing, Global, Business, Markets, Economics

4.81.4K Ratings

🗓️ 10 February 2020

⏱️ 4 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

On today's episode: The recent, relatively small, overall market correction masks more significant shifts between asset classes. Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer, on the implications for our understanding of market optimism and future growth. 

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Welcome to the thoughts on the market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment

0:05.6

Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley.

0:08.6

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be

0:11.4

talking about the latest trends in the

0:12.9

financial marketplace it's Monday February 10th at 9 a.m. Eastern so let's get

0:17.3

after it heading into 2020 sentiment was at a high in fact based on the data we track, investors hadn't been

0:24.6

collectively this bullish since January 2018 right after the biggest tax cut for

0:29.6

U.S. corporations and individuals in over 30 years.

0:33.0

However, in my view, the drivers of bullishness at the end of 2019

0:37.0

were more about fears dissipating and extraordinary liquidity

0:40.0

than general excitement about growth acceleration like it was two years ago.

0:44.8

In short, equity markets climbed the proverbial wall of worry.

0:48.1

While it's often impossible to identify the catalyst for an over-bought market to correct in advance, it's easy in hindsight.

0:55.0

In this case, the coronavirus provided a big enough concern last month for the markets to experience

0:59.8

their largest correction since early October.

1:02.4

However, looking at a chart of the S&P 500 or NASDAQ,

1:05.8

one could say what correction.

1:07.4

The fact that we only sold off a paltry 3.5%

1:10.5

on valid growth concerns suggest the buy the dip mentality and the liquidity

1:14.7

driven bull market are very much in charge.

1:17.4

This impressive resilience makes our first half 2020 bullcase target of 3500 for the S&P 500 looked more likely while 3100 to 3150

1:27.1

provides strong support.

...

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