Welcome and thoughts on the market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief

U.S. Equity Strategies for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing a variety of

perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, October 12th at 11.30 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it.

With less than a month ago in the U.S. elections, all eyes remain on Washington, D.C.

In addition to the election, we have Congress in the White House in the midst of a negotiation

around the next fiscal stimulus package.

And if that wasn't enough, the Senate has begun proceedings on the confirmation to the Supreme Court.

To say these are heightened times in politics would be an understatement.

While all these events are important for the future of the country, they may not be as important

to the financial markets.

Here we believe the business cycle dominates the political one and so that is where we tend to focus our analysis.

First, on the stimulus package, there's no doubt that fiscal policy has been extremely important to this economic recovery so far.

In fact, it was one of the key observations that helped us get bullish at the bottom in late March.

However, the recovery next year will likely be determined more by our ability to reopen than anything else.

Will we be able to return to work safely, dine in at restaurants, travel, and do the things that drive more than half of the economic activity?

If so, we're confident the recovery will advance without more stimulus.

Second, no matter which party wins the election, it's becoming clear that we will eventually get more stimulus next year.

The election outcome will simply determine the size and direction of the spending.

The range of outcomes is wide, with $1 trillion at the low end and over $3 trillion at the upper bound.

With the polls favoring Joe Biden at the moment and Democrats in many congressional races, the market has started

to price in a blue sweep.

Such an outcome suggests a greater fiscal package than eventually gets passed, even if it takes

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