Welcome to thoughts on the market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief

U.S. Equity strategist for Morgan Stanley. A lot of my colleagues bringing you a variety

of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace.

It's Monday September 9th at 9 a.m. Eastern so let's get after it. If the last 12 months

seemed like Groundhog Day to you you're probably not alone we've been in a

seashaw pattern where just as markets are about to completely break down,

there's a headline that trade talks are going well,

or central bankers are going to do another rate cut, and voila, markets rally.

Given last week's rally on the hopes of trade talks coming in October

and the ECB and Fed likely to do more in the upcoming weeks,

this feels awfully familiar.

Our view continues to be that trade talks are unlikely to result in anything meaningful or substantial enough to reverse the damage already done to global trade, cap-ex, or corporate confidence.

In other

incremental monetary policy from central banks over the next few weeks is unlikely

to change the trajectory of growth in the near term.

First, it takes time for monetary

policy to affect the real economy. Second interest rates have already plummeted

over the past year, but we've yet to see any reversal in economic leading

indicators or Ernie's guidance trends.

They're both still pointed down. Therefore we stand firm in our view that equity

markets are likely to remain range-bound and cap near last week's closing

levels which has been the high end of the

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